Buffalo: Elliot Said It Would, Photos
UPDATE:After some weekend comments and questions from blog readers, I have added the following information Monday morning:
Note that Elliot was modest enough Friday (PREMIUM) to point out that he didn't forecast a specific amount of heavy snow. And we're all modest enough to admit that it was, in fact the GFS Forecast Model [JessePedia] that really "predicted" the snowfall.
But that comment dovetails into a discussion of what exactly a meteorologist IS and what our purpose here is. You'll note with the GFS maps that I posted Monday regarding Eastern snowfall predictions were low resolution, with one block of data covering an area the size of Connecticut. The GFS, because it goes out to 15 days of forecasts, has lower resolution than some of the favored short-range models. So while it wasn't predicting a specific amount of snow in Buffalo, someone like Elliot could look at the winds and atmospheric lifting at various levels, and see that the record snowfall was possible. Then he could use his past knowledge of how the model does with its forecasts in that area, that far out, in a situation like this. From that he would know how much to caution his readers about the potential accuracy of the forecast.
Finally in closing, a photo of the Buffalo event from Photo Gallery user Romeo_in_Buffalo:
ORIGINAL POST:
AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi (PRO) pointed out that Elliot Abrams (PREMIUM | PRO) correctly forecast the record thundersnow in Buffalo:
The number of power outages exceeded 380,000, more than doubling the number reported yesterday morning in my original entry, where you can see a list of the highest amounts in New York and Michigan from this storm.
A pedestrians walk around downed trees in Buffalo, N.Y., on Friday, Oct. 13, 2006, after a heavy snow storm. A rare early October snowstorm left parts of western New York blanketed with 2 feet of snow, prompting widespread blackouts, closing schools and halting traffic. (Ap Photo of the Day/Mike Groll)
Elliot wrote in his blog on Monday (PREMIUM):
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