Tropical Storm Dolly forms in Atlantic, tracking toward northeast Caribbean

Tropical Storm Dolly has formed over the south-central Atlantic, but hostile wind shear may threaten its survival near the Caribbean. Downpours and rough seas are forecast for the Lesser Antilles regardless.

A tropical wave has become better organized with a defined circulation and a cluster of thunderstorms over the south-central Atlantic. Tropical Storm Dolly is heading toward the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean this weekend.

Atlantic storm names are established years in advance, with lists reused every six years unless a name is retired and replaced. Dolly was on that list and is not associated with the recent passing of the country music star.

“People in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor Dolly, which is expected to approach the Leeward Islands this weekend with downpours and gusty squalls,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "While the storms may bring beneficial rain to needy areas, they could cause dangerous conditions as well due to flash flooding."

Northern Caribbean impacts

The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes with Dolly is less than 1 for the northeast Caribbean.

At a minimum, Dolly is expected to bring locally drenching showers, gusty thunderstorms and choppy seas to the Leeward Islands and perhaps the northern Windward Islands this weekend. At this time, 1-4 inches of rain is forecast from the Leewards through Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, with the exact amount depending on the track and intensity of the rainstorm.

Mountainous terrain on the larger island could further enhance rainfall in some areas, provided Dolly has not lost significant organization. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 12 inches.

The islands rely on seasonal rainfall during the tropical season for their year-round water supply.

"If a stronger tropical storm approaches, the islands could face flash flooding, damaging wind gusts and dangerous seas," DaSilva said.

At this time, Dolly is not expected to be a major wind producer in the northeast Caribbean. Still gusts can be strong enough in thunderstorms to lead to sporadic tree damage and power outages.

The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust is 60 mph for Dolly.

Dolly may struggle soon and later as well

There are some hurdles for Dolly in the near future. An area of dry air has developed immediately to the west, and a belt of disruptive breezes (wind shear) awaits near the Leeward Islands. These winds alter the structure and circulation of storms and can deter development altogether.

Both dry air and wind shear could lead to a loss of intensity as the tropical storm approaches the Leewards. A poorly-organized Dolly could struggle to bring a couple of inches of rain.

Tropical development has been slow this season, even as the Atlantic approaches the time of year when storm numbers and intensity typically surge. An already strong and still-strengthening El Niño is a major factor, as it promotes widespread wind shear.

A strong belt of wind shear has persisted across the Caribbean this season, at times extending into the Main Development Region, or MDR, of the central tropical Atlantic.

Combined with large pockets of dry, dust-laden air from the Sahara Desert, the wind shear has created a hostile environment for tropical development across much of the Atlantic basin.

U.S. Concern: If Dolly diminishes over the northern Caribbean, it could come back to life

It is possible that Dolly could totally dissipate over the Greater Antilles or perhaps awaken from dormancy should it wander north of Cuba.

"It is likely that wind shear and land interaction with the islands will prevent any rapid intensification and could cause Dolly to lose wind intensity and become very disorganized early next week," DaSilva said. "If Dolly can survive the dry air, wind shear and land interaction near the islands, the environment does become more conducive for development and strengthening off the southeast U.S. coast mid-to-late next week."

"Wind shear is forecast to be low in the zone near the Bahamas with water warm enough to support re-intensification, provided Dolly has not been completely wrecked by mountainous terrain and wind shear beforehand," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "Should Dolly survive, or come back to life, it could be a concern for the southeastern United States late next week."

Peak of Atlantic hurricane season approaches as El Niño intensifies

From a climatological standpoint, the Atlantic basin is much more likely to have an active tropical storm or hurricane during Labor Day weekend than to be devoid of tropical activity.

Atlantic tropical activity historically increases sharply from late August into early September, reaching its climatological peak around Sept. 10.

However, thus far in 2026, there have been only four tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly. The season is behind the historical pace for tropical storms and has yet to produce a hurricane.

"The Atlantic is overdue for its first hurricane of the season," AccuWeather Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell said. "We typically see the first hurricane develop before Aug. 1."

Excluding Hurricane Alex, which formed unusually early in January 2016, the average date of the Atlantic season’s first hurricane over the past 10 years is July 27.

The latest that a season’s first Atlantic hurricane has developed during the satellite era is Sept. 11, a record shared by Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013. Before the satellite era, the 1914 season ended without a documented hurricane.

“It will be very difficult for a tropical system to enter the Caribbean this year because strong El Niño conditions are producing intense wind shear across the region,” DaSilva said. “I think this El Niño has the potential to become the strongest on record, or at least the strongest since 1950. If that occurs, the latter part of the Atlantic hurricane season could be less active overall.”

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