A Dire Warning from Joe Bastardi...
AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO) "It will be the week that will be, later this week, the week that is, and next week, and for years to come, the week that was... when the weather went wild over the center of nation." Why? Joe says that this week's upper-air forecast matches the first week of April 1974 nearly exactly - the dates of the Super Tornado Outbreak. Joe believes that the storm could become a "Godzilla" storm, producing heavy flooding, and over 100 tornadoes could strike from the Arklatex through the Midwest.
Even NOAA [JessePedia] seems excited about the probability of severe storms. The SPC says"ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/THURSDAY...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES". As far as the models... the DGEX is pretty excited, showing incredible Severe Weather Indices [JessePedia] from the Forecast Models [JessePedia] such as the LI at < -10 Thursday night in the target area (above)... the GFS is further southeast and less impressive with both CAPE and LI.
The rainfall predictions for rainfall this week from the GFS... more heavy rains for the areas that don't need it.
Although, for the record, I'll put up this 18-day rainfall map as I did last week, to show how the hardest-hit areas compare. Note that although last night's GFS predicted the heaviest rain (6 to 8 inches) to fall in the hardest hit areas, this maximum on the GFS is north of northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri. Still, 3-4 inches of rain will be no picnic, so expect to see more flooding footage on the news this week.
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