Rain or Shine? What to expect for the Easter holiday weekend
We are now about 10 days from the start of the Easter holiday weekend across the United Kingdom, but will the weather cooperate for your plans?
A very complex weather pattern is set to unfold across Europe over the next two weeks meaning the forecast for the big holiday weekend may take several twists and turns in the coming days.
My goal from this post is to give some information that people can use to have an idea of what weather may unfold around the holiday weekend and if nothing else, eliminate some of the crazy hype that certain news outlets proclaim to be a weather forecast.
First off, I'm not expecting any extreme weather for the U.K. during the period from Friday.
What I mean by this is that I do not think there will be a windstorm, extreme cold or snow, or a significant heat wave during this time.
The weather will likely come down to two primary factors, a Scandinavian high pressure system and a cut-off low pressure system that will be located somewhere in western Europe.
The position and strength of these two features will determine whether dry or wet weather will prevail for most of the holiday weekend.
So let's explore these two scenarios a little closer and what it means for your holiday weather forecast.
Scenario 1
An image showing high pressure and dry weather across the United Kingdom on Easter.
My current inclination is to favor a stronger Scandinavian high pressure which could act to shield the U.K. from wet weather.
This scenario would also likely lead to seasonable temperatures and some sunshine each day.
The cut-off storm that I mentioned previously would be forced southward from Spain into Italy during the holiday weekend in this scenario.
Scenario 2
An image showing rain across the United Kingdom on Easter.
Another possibility is that the Scandinavian high pressure is weaker and centered closer to Norway than Scotland during the holiday weekend.
In this scenario, the cut-off storm that initially tracks into Spain could lift northward across France and bring rainfall to all or parts of the U.K. throughout the holiday weekend.
Mild air would likely be pulled northward with the rainfall; however, thick cloud and the dampness would limit how warm it may feel even if temperatures were a few degrees higher.
Depending on the strength and position of the area of high pressure, rain could impact only southern parts of the U.K. or continue to spread northward and affect all locations.
Check back for more updates on the Easter weather for your location.
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