Latest IPCC warming projections looking grim

The most recent AR6 Synthesis report by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was released last month, painted a sobering projection for future warming based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

It is now very likely that global warming will continue to increase in the near term in nearly all considered scenarios.

These projections were for the period 2081-2100 and were measured against the period from 1850-1900. It is very likely that even under low greenhouse gas emissions, the planet may warm 1.4 degrees Celcius on average by the end of the century. Under the intermediate greenhouse gas emission scenario, the world is projected to warm 2.7 degrees on average. Under the high emissions scenario, that number rises to an average of 4.4 degrees above the 1850-1900 mean.

Based on a continuation of current, worldwide greenhouse gas emission policies now estimates that the world will warm an average of 3.2 degrees by the end of the century, compared to the second half of the 19th century.

The report also made it clear that deep, rapid and sustained greenhouse gas emissions such as reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions and significant drops in methane emissions would be needed by the early 2030s in order to limit warming to less than 2 degrees by the year 2100.

It was estimated that even with rapid and major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, it would take at least 20 years to see a sustained slowing of the global warming trend.