Latest future projections from global warming

The IPCC recently released its sixth assessment on climate change. This week, I will cover some of the key points in regards to future global temperature and precipitation projections that have been updated.

Monthly, observed global surface temperature anomalies since 1901. V= major volcanic eruption, which can have a brief, but significant cooling impact. M=solar maximum, m=solar minimum. Image credit NASA GISS.

Global temperatures will continue to rise until at least the middle of the 21st century under all five of the man-made emission scenarios.

Global warming of 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels will be exceeded by the end of this century unless there are deep reductions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.

Four out of five emission scenarios all project global warming to continue through the 21st century.

Future global warming projections under three different emission scenarios. Credit Dr. Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS.

It is virtually certain that the global land surface will warm more than the global ocean surface.

The Arctic region will continue to warm more than the global surface and most likely more than two times the rate of global warming.

Image credit NASA GISS

The Arctic is likely to be practically ice-free in September at least once before the year 2050.

It is very likely that heavy precipitation events will intensify and become more frequent in most regions with additional global warming.