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Weather Blogs / Western US weather

Drought concerns linger in the Northwest as dry season approaches

By Brian Thompson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated May 26, 2021 5:55 PM EDT

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In my previous winter summaries for the Desert Southwest and California, the focus was on the lack of rain and the concerning levels of drought that have built up.

Across the Pacific Northwest, even though the winter featured precipitation levels that were not all that far off the average, especially compared to the Southwest, drought conditions have been gradually expanding.

A look at the Drought Monitor shows the worst conditions across Oregon. This is an area that has had some large wildfires in the past, so we'll have to keep a close eye on this area as the summer progresses.

There has also been an expansion of drought conditions in recent months across southern and eastern Washington state.

These are the areas that were not quite as lucky with precipitation during the winter. Here's a look at the specifics of how much precipitation fell from October through April and how that compared to average:

The area from the Cascades west through the Puget Sound and much of the Olympic Peninsula in Washington did the best with precipitation, while areas farther to the south and east did not fare quite as well.

It was a memorable winter in other ways, as a major winter storm in February dropped nearly a foot of snow in Seattle and caused major icing through the Willamette Valley. The storm knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of customers as over an inch of ice coated trees and power lines.

Looking ahead to the summer, our long-range team is expecting a largely hot and dry summer across the Northwest.

Overall, this will increase the concern for wildfires, especially across Idaho, Oregon, eastern Washington.

It is worth noting, though, that if the dryness is due to a lack of thunderstorms, less lightning could mean less fire starts. Lightning is the primary driver of wildfires in the Northwest, so that could help hold back the fire threat somewhat.

That being said, a dry summer would allow the drought conditions to continue to worsen over the coming months.

Now that we've looked back over the winter, the focus here on the blog will turn toward the Southwest monsoon and the increasing wildfire threat over the next few months.

We've already had some early wildfires this year across the Southwest, and that threat will persist with the continued dryness. Through the summer and fall, we'll be focused on looking for potential wind events and/or thunderstorms that could spark fires.

As we saw last summer, all it took was a few clusters of thunderstorms across Northern California to start fires which evolved into massive fires that consumed millions of acres. Just one event or two can have a huge impact on the fire season.

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