Dont Sweat The Little Stuff

I get the occasional letter from my readers complaining about temperature forecasts when they are off by two or three degrees. I got such a letter this past weekend when it did not cool down in the Central Valley of California as quickly as we had thought from earlier in the week. Just to set the record straight on the cool-down. Yes, Saturday was hotter than it was supposed to be, but Sunday and today have turned even cooler than I had expected. It was and is only in the lower 70s around Sacramento yesterday and today respectively, 20 to 25 degrees below average for early August.

Now back to the temperature forecasts. For forecasts to the general public, most meteorologist these days are not concerned about hitting the exact number for the high or low. If we are within two or three degrees that is just fine. You might ask whatever happened to wanting to be as accurate as possible? Nothing really. We still try to be as accurate as possible for when it is going to rain or snow, whether there will be severe weather or not, strong winds, you know all the big things that affect people's lives. Because when it comes down to it the average person cannot tell the difference between 83 and 85, or 96 and 99 (unless you are reading a thermometer). So this is why we don't sweat the little stuff for these kind of forecasts.

In the example of what happened this weekend I don't even mind much that Sunday was cooler than we had forecast. We did forecast a major cool-down and that is what occurred. That is what most people remember. It was hot, now it's noticeably cooler and that is what the forecast said would happen.

There are still forecasts that are highly dependent on the exact temperatures. Utility companies, for one, hang on to every degree to determine peak loads that will be needed for heating or air conditioning. Agricultural areas, especially with regard to winter temperatures, also need a very accurate prediction of temperature. There can be a big difference for certain crops if the low is 28 vs 29 or 30. These are just two examples.

So if the forecast is off by 2 or 3 degrees, don't sweat the little stuff. It will help you enjoy the day and lower your blood pressure.