--Weak to moderate El Nino conditions are expected in the equatorial Pacific into this summer, and this may have a small role in the weather pattern this summer, especially in the western half of the country.

--Expect an unusually warm and dry summer across western Canada, especially British Columbia through the Yukon Territory. This is likely to lead to an active wildfire season in this region, with a higher probability of large fires that can burn tremendous amounts of land area. Later in the summer, smoke from large wildfires in the north may become a health issue at times across southern British Columbia and southwestern Alberta, this includes places such as Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary.

<em>****In Canada, lightning causes around 50 percent of all wildfires (from National Resources Canada), however, lightning started fires are responsible for 85 percent of all the area that is burned in Canada on average.</em>

--Increased potential for record-challenging heat over portions of British Columbia this summer.

--Currently, significant drought exists in portions of northwestern British Columbia, northern Alberta and from south-central Saskatchewan to south-central Manitoba. Based on our current outlook, I fear that drought conditions may become extreme this summer from central and northern British Columbia, through northern Alberta.

--Rainfall may end up above normal across extreme southwestern Alberta this summer, as this region may be on the northern extent of moist air being drawn northward into the United States Rockies during July and August. Expect more thunderstorms than usual with a higher threat for lightning and flash flooding in places such as Banff and Waterton Lakes national parks.

--Water temperatures are expected to remain above normal along coastal British Columbia this summer, which may result in a higher population of Salmon.

--Based on the projected pattern, we expect a lower-than-normal amount of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the Prairie region this summer.

--A wetter-than-usual summer is expected across a large portion of Ontario, as showers and heavy thunderstorms will be common. I also expect a more humid summer with plenty of biting flies and mosquitoes (this includes cottage country). This may also lead to an increased threat for tornadoes over southwestern Ontario.

--Lake water levels throughout much of the Great Lakes are expected to remain well above normal into this summer, which also increases the risk for coastal erosion and property damage during storms.

--The summer looks to be abnormally warm from southern Quebec through much of Atlantic Canada. a more persistent west to west-northwesterly wind flow pattern should limit the amount of Atlantic moisture into the region, leading to more sunshine than usual.

--Based on current conditions and the expected summer pattern, the risk for wildfires from northern Ontario through northern and central Quebec will be reduced, with a lower number of fires and less area burned compared to normal.

Report a Typo