Northeast faces rain and wind this weekend, but warm air is coming next week
1. A large area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms extends from Mississippi and Arkansas to Virginia. Up to this point, a stalled frontal zone and a storm that came out of the Southwest have caused the setup we have now. The upper-air storm is not in any hurry to move east, and at least part of its circulation will move through the Gulf states this weekend. Farther north, the back edge of the clouds (see map below) extends from central Illinois to near Lake Erie. That line has actually been drifting southeast and eastward this morning. If what we see now was all that mattered, the dry air could continue eastward and the rain in Virginia might not get any farther north than Delaware or New Jersey.
However, there is a strong short wave trough dropping southeastward from south-central Canada. That system is what the computer models use to show a storm that rapidly develops off the Middle Atlantic coast tomorrow then turns into a gale center east of Maine later Sunday. The NAM model gives less than 0.10 of an inch of rain to Pittsburgh, about 0.50 of an inch to State College, 1 inch or so near Harrisburg, 1.5 inches in central New Jersey and 2 inches on Long Island (the equivalent of a snowstorm range from 1 to 20 inches!). Speaking of snow, I would not be surprised if some of the mountains of New England get more than half a foot of snow Sunday and Sunday night.
This was the pressure pattern this morning. There is a large area where flow is coming inland from the Atlantic.
Video:
High pressure areas should dominate Northeast weather for the next several days, but storms will follow.
Through early this morning, all the thunderstorm activity was associated with the storm from the southwest and the stalled frontal boundary (which will be drawn northward along the coast tomorrow.)
2, The next two maps are upper-air forecasts. The first shows why it should be chilly Monday in New England. The second shows why it should get much warmer in the middle of next week.:
3. Since we appear to be going into a new weather pattern with the breakdown of he recent blocking situation, we will see what if any changes will occur in rainfall and the degree of drought or wetness in any given area. This is a drought monitor map from this week showing how few places are in a serious drought right now (I do not wish to make light of anyone's misfortune if you live in one of those areas).
