Illinois to Pennsylvania: a hot and humid start for autumn

1. There is currently a standoff between a large high pressure area that dominates the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the interior of the Northeast and a stalled Tropical Storm Jose sitting a spinning southeast of New England. In the areas dominated by the high pressure area, we expect a series of sunny and summery days, clear nights and fog-laced dawns through the weekend. At areas closer to the storm (now including eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut), it is cloudy and windy with the chance for showers. Very heavy rain is found offshore, close to the center of Jose. During the next couple of days, Jose may drift southward or southwestward, potentially extending the moist zone into New Jersey or perhaps eastern Pennsylvania. On the other hand, if the storm loops around and drifts east, all these problems go away (except for rough surf and beach erosion).

These maps show the pressure pattern and the arrangement of clouds, fog and rain as of early this morning:

2. A sequence of upper forecasts for tomorrow afternoon, early next week and late next week show the persistence of the current pattern and then its breakdown:

Even next Tuesday, we see a hint of Jose well off the East Coast.

Much cooler air would arrive across the Great Lakes and Northeast with this setup late next week. With this scenario, Maria would have missed the East Coast.
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