...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEK... Following a front bringing rain across the Panhandle today, a developing low is expected to move into the SE Gulf Monday into Tuesday. This system is still expected to bring enhanced rainfall to the far southern Panhandle, particularly Ketchikan and Metlakatla. Forecast confidence continues to grow that the less impactful solution is still the most likely. This would have the low continue to be more progressive and the moisture plume stay further south before wrapping around to impact the eastern half of Clarence Strait / Misty Fjords late Monday night into Tuesday morning. While overall 24-hr rain amounts are now ranging from around 0.75 for coastal communities on Prince of Wales Island to 1.5 inches for Ketchikan and Metlakatla, the heaviest rainfall and rates are expected along southerly facing mountains in eastern portions of the Ketchikan Gateway Borough and Annette Island. It is not out of the question for one of those areas to get an outlier amount of as much as 2 inches. Fast-responding rivers and lakes may reach bank full conditions, but no flooding is expected at this time. Winds in Clarence Strait and the SE Gulf will increase out of the S and SE with fresh to strong breezes (18 - 24 kt) for Monday morning as it approaches the outer coast. Later in the week, Thursday and Friday, it is looking like a more impactful frontal system, with an associated weak to moderate atmospheric river, will move over the Panhandle. This will bring heavier rainfall & some relatively gusty conditions to a more widespread area. The heaviest precipitation again looks to focus on the southern Panhandle with isolated areas of 1.5 to 2 inches in 24 hours. The heaviest of this precipitation is expected to fall Thursday over areas along the coast. Ensembles are showing a >70% chance that winds along the NE Gulf will reach strong breezes to Gale force winds of 30 to 35 kts. We will continue to monitor this system as it gets closer.
