Storms with flash floods, high winds poised for central and southeastern US this week
As the Northeast catches a break from the downpours and storms, parts of the Plains, Midwest and Southeast will remain active due to potentially flooding rain and damaging wind gust this week.
The Northeast and mid-Atlantic will get a much-needed break from the showers. Bernie Rayno explains when drier weather arrives Wednesday, when rain returns Thursday into Friday and what to expect this weekend.
As storms temporarily take a break in the Northeast, thunderstorms will hammer parts of the Plains, Midwest and Southeast with locally torrential rain and damaging wind gusts.
More storms to rumble, drench parts of East
As one part of the torrential downpours departs New England Tuesday night, a batch of rain and locally severe storms will persist across parts of the Southeast through Wednesday. Most of the storms will be widely separated but will occur in a zone from the Carolinas to much of Virginia and southeastern Maryland.
Since humidity levels will remain high throughout the week, any shower or thunderstorm that pops up could bring enough rain in a matter of minutes to cause flash flooding.
On Thursday, the severe weather threat is forecast to shift a bit farther north from the northern part of North Carolina to much of Virginia and Maryland to parts of Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania.
Flash flood risk to include part of Ohio Valley
Farther west, AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned of a growing flash flood risk from Illinois to the southern Appalachians. Several inches of rain may fall over a 36-hour period, with some storms potentially unleashing over an inch in a few hours.
Hilly terrain in parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, western Virginia and western North Carolina could intensify flash flooding to the point that it becomes life-threatening.
Severe storms to hound Plains, part of Midwest
Rounds of storms over the Plains and the Upper Midwest will be severe and may bring torrential rain much of this week.
Through Tuesday night, localized severe storms will extend over the High Plains from central Montana to east-central Colorado, eastward across much of the northern parts of the Plains and into central and southern Minnesota and part of western Wisconsin. Within this zone, a more concentrated area of severe weather is forecast from much of South Dakota to west-central Minnesota.
The main threats into Tuesday night will be from high winds, damaging hail and a few tornadoes. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust is 90 mph.
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A similar severe weather zone is forecast for Wednesday afternoon and night. Once again, locally severe storms will extend across the High Plains. In this case, the storms are forecast from central Montana to as far south as the Oklahoma Panhandle and northeastern New Mexico. An arm of severe weather is projected to extend from eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas to Michigan's Lower Peninsula.
Another pocket of severe weather will extend westward through much of Wyoming and into southeastern Idaho.
A pocket with a greater concentration of severe storms is forecast in parts of Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas on Wednesday. The main threats will be hail and wind gusts, along with flash-flood potential. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust is 90 mph.
A similar setup for severe thunderstorms is forecast to persist over the Central states on Thursday, with storms expected from the High Plains into parts of the Midwest. The main threats will be from damaging wind gusts and hail.
Overlapping and just north of the prime areas of severe weather will be a zone where downpours are forecast to repeat.
Through Thursday morning, a general 1-3 inches of rain will fall from eastern Montana to northern Michigan. However, some places will pick up double that amount. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 8 inches.
Many portions of the High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest could use non-flooding rainfall due to ongoing drought.
Rain may miss where it's needed most
A large part of this zone is occupied by the Ogallala Aquifer, which extends across much of the High Plains, and is the largest underground water supply in the U.S. It is fed mostly by summertime thunderstorms, in which rain percolates into the porous bedrock.
Long-term drought can reduce this water supply, raising fears that the resource may someday be completely depleted. Rain is needed in this region regularly to replenish what is taken away.
The heaviest and steadiest rain is forecast to fall north of the aquifer this week.
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