Flooding downpours and gusty storms to target the Plains through Thursday
A slow-moving storm from the Rockies will link up with tropical moisture, bringing flooding downpours and travel delays from Texas to Illinois.
The moisture that caused flash flooding in parts of the West Coast is heading east to the Plains.
Another round of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the Plains this week, bringing relief to areas still facing extreme to exceptional drought, but it also revives the risk of flooding.
Flood risk influenced by tropical moisture
The greatest flash flood threat will be where storms overlap day after day, particularly from West Texas to southwestern Missouri. That includes the metro areas of Lubbock, Texas; Oklahoma City; and Springfield, Missouri. Oklahoma City, for example, has received only 55% of its normal rainfall so far this year.
Moisture from Simon, an East Pacific tropical system, is influencing the setup, though it may be only a small part of the story.
“Some moisture from Simon will combine with a surge of tropical moisture from the Gulf over the southern United States this week, fueling rounds of drenching showers and thunderstorms from Texas into parts of the Midwest,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Jack Wojczynski.
Forecasters note that ample moisture surging out of the Gulf will likely play a larger role than Simon in the central U.S. Meanwhile, a separate storm moving slowly across the Western states will gradually merge with the stormy pattern over the central part of the country.
From Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night, potent thunderstorms are expected to develop from far eastern New Mexico and West Texas into western Oklahoma, Kansas, central Missouri and west-central Illinois. Flooding downpours are the primary threat within the storms, but they will also be capable of producing hail and gusty winds on the order of 60 to 70 mph.
Severe weather risk and travel disruptions to continue
A very similar setup will repeat itself from Wednesday to Wednesday night. While intense downpours within thunderstorms that can produce flooding will be the main risk, winds can also cause some damage as storms pulse across northwestern and north-central Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
The heaviest rain and thunderstorms will focus on parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska on Wednesday. The storm crossing the Rockies early in the week will gradually link up with the Plains storms, widening the area of rain and thunderstorms.
Travel delays are possible on Wednesday along portions of Interstates 20, 35, 40, 44, 70 and 80 across the Plains. Intense rainfall could slow traffic to a crawl as thunderstorms move through, and gusty winds may create difficult crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.
“With abundant atmospheric moisture in place, very heavy rainfall rates can cause low visibility and disrupt travel. Heavy rain can disrupt the Wednesday and Thursday evening commute. A few thunderstorms may become severe across the region,” explained Wojczynski.
Rain will continue to pile up through Thursday night, with the heaviest totals stretching from northwestern Texas to Missouri.
“By Thursday night, a large swath of 2 to 4 inches of rain is forecast from western Texas into central Illinois, with a corridor of 4 to 8 inches from northwestern Texas through central Oklahoma into Missouri. Flash flooding will be possible, especially in low-lying and poor-drainage areas,” added Wojczynski.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for rain from Tuesday night to Thursday night is 14 inches.
Storm exits, cooler air arrives
The storm will shift eastward by the end of the week as high pressure takes over the Plains and a cooler pattern sets in. Across the central Plains, highs will fall from the 80s and 90s F early in the week to the 60s F.
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