Tropical Storm Simon impacts are lingering; new threat brewing from Trudy in Mexico
Tropical Storm Simon's path south of the United States is being delayed as Hurricane Trudy is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane, bringing more flooding rain, dangerous surf and strong winds to Mexico.
Trudy could rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane near Mexico’s Pacific coast, but a stronger hurricane doesn’t automatically mean bigger waves at California beaches.
Tropical Storm Simon is threatening Mexico's west-central coast with ongoing torrential rain and dangerous seas. Hurricane Trudy has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane as of early Friday morning, not far away in the eastern Pacific.
The severity of conditions along the Mexican coast from Trudy will depend on whether the storm's eyewall reaches the coast or the storm makes a glancing blow and closely parallels the shoreline. A track difference of 50-100 miles could have profound differences in impacts.
This image shows Simon (upper left of center) and the much larger Trudy (lower right of center) in the eastern Pacific on Thursday morning, Oct. 15, 2026. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Landfall would bring severe conditions typical of a major hurricane, while the eye passing 100 miles offshore might allow for only tropical storm conditions.
Simon's path is blocked in the short term
Weak steering winds will cause Simon to move slowly through at least Thursday night.
Even as Simon wanders off the Mexican coast, moisture will be pulled to the northeast, enhancing some rainfall into northern Mexico and the United States.
Based on some new information, if Simon survives, it is forecast to track along the west side of the Baja Peninsula this weekend into early next week.
Some fragments of moisture will be torn off Simon and can drift into parts of Texas and Oklahoma through the end of the week, joining other moisture, even if the center remains well south of the border.
The latest information suggests that if Simon survives and tracks well to the north along the Baja Peninsula next week, another round of its moisture could be pulled into New Mexico or Arizona.
Regardless of Simon’s eventual track, rough seas, waves washing over beaches and coastal roads, drenching rain, flash flooding and gusty winds will continue to threaten portions of Mexico’s Pacific coast through the end of the week.
Simon’s strongest winds and heaviest rain in southwestern Mexico have already occurred, but additional rain and gusty winds will affect the west-central coast through the end of the week. Some heavy rain and wind could reach northwestern Mexico by this weekend, depending on the storm’s track.
Trudy to remain a powerful hurricane
There is another tropical problem brewing along Mexico's Pacific coast. Trudy first strengthened into a hurricane early Thursday morning. As of Friday morning, Trudy is now a major hurricane and is forecast to continue strengthening in the coming days as it tracks northward.
“Trudy has the potential to even reach Category 4 or 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
The hurricane is forecast to pass close enough to Mexico’s Pacific coast to bring torrential rain, dangerous surf and strong wind gusts.
At this time, there is an extensive band where 8-12 inches of rain is expected to fall.
Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches are forecast across a broad area of Mexico’s Pacific coast. Some of the rain will fall in areas between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta that Simon and other storms have already drenched this season.
Manzanillo could face some of the storm’s heaviest rain, strongest winds and greatest flooding risk.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 25 inches, and the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust on land is 100 mph.
Due to flooding rainfall, strong winds and storm surge, Trudy is a 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a six-point scale, with ratings of less than one and 1 to 5, that accounts for not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.
If Trudy continues to strengthen as forecast, stronger winds near its center will generate dangerously high waves offshore. Large swells will spread outward, threatening small boats and large vessels.
For large swells to reach Southern California beaches from either Simon or Trudy, the storms would have to swing farther west, away from the Mexican coast, next week.
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