Central and eastern US pattern change to bring much-needed rain, also severe storms

The localized heavy rain, while desperately needed, can also lead to flash flooding that snarls travel and outdoor plans as fall gets underway.

Following weeks of dry weather, much-needed rain is coming to a large part of the central and eastern United States this week as multiple storms move east, but it will come at a cost, warn AccuWeather meteorologists.

The rounds of rain will be accompanied by a risk of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding--threats more commonly associated with the summertime rather than the first few days of fall.

"While the landscape is dry and will absorb a great deal of the rain that falls in most areas, there will be pockets where so much rain falls so fast that it will quickly run off and can lead to dangerous conditions," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

"A series of slow-moving storms coupled with moisture flowing northward from the Gulf will lead to several rounds of rain this week across the Midwest, as well as the Mississippi and Ohio valleys," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

Much-needed rain comes at the risk of flooding

While the threat of damaging thunderstorms will impact a few areas, the rain will come for most from the Plains to the Midwest and East this week. It comes in the wake of weeks of mainly dry conditions that drastically expanded drought conditions.

"A large swath of the eastern third of the nation from the Mississippi Valley on eastward is experiencing some level of drought," said Pydynowski. "Because of this, the turn to wetter and more humid conditions will be welcome for many."

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday, abnormally dry or drought conditions were covering over 59% of the Midwest and over 81% of the Northeast, up from 21% and 54% respectively, just four weeks prior.

The lack of rain has strained agricultural interests, browned yards and even led to water restrictions in the region.

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The first storm was already arriving in the Plains and Midwest on Sunday, and others will follow for the rest of the week. The repeated nature of the rain can lead to impacts to travel and outdoor plans across well over a dozen states.

"Several inches of rain could fall in these areas between Monday and Friday," added Pydynowski. "Localized downpours can lead to reduced visibility and ponding on roadways for drivers."

Through Wednesday night, the area at greatest risk of repetitive downpours and flooding extends from Kansas and Oklahoma east through the Ozarks and toward the mid-Mississippi River Valley.

"There is the likelihood of flash flooding on a regional basis in northern Arkansas and southern Missouri and flash flooding on a highly localized basis farther to the east in portions of Tennessee, Kentucky and southern Illinois," Sosnowski said.

Springfield, Missouri, a city in the heart of this area, has measured only just over 3 inches of rain since the beginning of July, less than a third of the rain that typically falls in that time frame. It's possible that 2-4 inches of rain can fall just this week.

Later in the week, through Friday, rounds of locally heavy rain will spread across parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and even Northeast.

Severe storms can be embedded with the rain

Besides dodging raindrops, many will have to keep an eye to the sky for thunderstorms. "Though the rain will be welcome, thunderstorms over the next few days will also produce some risk of severe weather for millions," warned Pydynowski.

Following an initial risk of severe weather across a large swath of the Midwest, from Missouri to Michigan, the threat will slowly build south and east along with the rain chances during the new workweek.

On Monday afternoon and night, a large swath of the Plains, including Oklahoma City and Wichita, Kansas, can experience thunderstorms with hail, damaging wind gusts and torrential rain. There is even a possibility of a tornado or two.

The renewal of severe weather, after weeks of quiet conditions, is more typical of the summer months rather than fall, which officially arrived in the Northern Hemisphere at 2:19 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday.

Closer to midweek, there will be two distinct areas where severe thunderstorms can occur—in the Mississippi Valley and Plains again, and also in the Northeast.

"By Tuesday, storms across parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New York and eastern Ohio could turn severe," said Pydynowski. "The main threats will be small hail and localized strong wind gusts, and this could slow travelers on portions of Interstates 70, 80 and 81."

Despite the threat of damaging storms, the greatest threat will remain the risk of flooding, which can be enhanced in thunderstorms.

Rainfall amounts of an inch or more an hour will be possible in stronger storms, which can wreak havoc on commutes.

On Wednesday, the threat of severe storms will shift farther to the south and east, but some in the Mississippi Valley will be affected once again.

Storms capable of producing flooding downpours, hail, and localized damaging wind gusts will cover an area from Kentucky and southern Indiana southward to Texas and Louisiana.

A large area of rain could develop in the Northeast before the end of the week.

"This would be just what the doctor ordered to help ease the building drought as it would follow locally drenching rain from a day before," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

As the storm center lifts across the St. Lawrence Valley on Thursday, thunderstorms are forecast to erupt along the trailing cold front as it moves from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Seaboard.

"Some of the storms from New Jersey to Georgia and Alabama on Thursday may be severe with powerful wind gusts and torrential downpours that set off travel delays on the area highways and at the major airport hubs from Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., to Charlotte and Atlanta," Sosnowski said. "Travelers should anticipate delays, especially if they have a flight or commute during the late afternoon and evening hours."

Northern Florida can expect showers and thunderstorms on a nearly daily basis starting on Tuesday. There has been a great contrast with rainfall this month and back to August in Florida, with the southern parts of the Peninsula getting swamped while the ground has become parched in the north.

A sprawling area of high pressure is forecast to build east late in the week, signaling a return to drier weather. This will occur as early as Thursday in the nation's midsection and by the weekend across the East.

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