Strong El Niño Potential Raises Concerns of Long-Term Drought & Mini-Dust Bowl Scenario
AccuWeather Climate Experts now say there is a 70% chance this El Nino event becomes a “Super El Niño”
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AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – June 19, 2026 – With an exceptionally strong El Niño expected to peak later this year and last into 2027, AccuWeather climate experts say the conditions are in place for a multi-year drought that could threaten crop yields and the water supply. With a 70% chance this event becomes a Super El Niño, history shows that following previous events of this magnitude, dry conditions in the Plains persisted for years afterward.
“After El Niño ends, the following two to three years can end up being significantly drier in parts of the Plains from Texas into the Dakotas, which are already experiencing extreme drought conditions,” said AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok. “The stronger the upcoming El Niño conditions get, the longer it takes for weather patterns to return to their historical average.”
El Niño is well known for above-average rainfall production across the southern U.S. during its peak, but dryness and drought are common in parts of the Northwest and other northern areas of the nation.
Plain States Seeing Dramatic Rise in Extreme Drought Conditions Now
Looking back over the last 12 months, the drought picture across the Plains has noticeably deteriorated. As of June 16 of this year, several states are experiencing "Extreme Drought" conditions — compared to virtually no drought in those regions a year ago, according to the Drought Monitor.
Current Drought Conditions Compared to the Same Time in 2025
The chart below shows the cumulative percent area of each state listed experiencing “extreme drought” conditions as of June 16, 2026, as compared to the percentage of the state in “extreme drought” at the same time last year (June 17, 2025).
*As of June 16, 2026
The chart below compares year-to-date precipitation through June 17, 2026 in four major cities in the states currently experiencing extreme drought noted above, against their year-to-date historical average of precipitation, highlighting the current deficits and percentage decrease for each city.
Key Midwestern growing areas have year-to-date precipitation running 40% or more below normal, causing a worsening drought and threatening crop production in the current growing season.
*As of June 17, 2026
“Here we are before El Niño is really getting going, and many areas of the country are already experiencing drought,” said AccuWeather Founder and Executive Chair Dr. Joel N. Myers. “In fact, when you average the rainfall across the country and give equal weight to all parts of the nation, you are talking about a level of dryness that occurs in less than 5% of the historical record. That is less than one in 20 years on average.”
“There is real concern the drought conditions could worsen as the precipitation deficit grows, given the expected strength of El Niño,” Dr. Myers added.
While some states in the contiguous United States are currently facing significant dryness, including Utah, Idaho, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Oregon, some other starts are experiencing normal precipitation and parts of the South are extremely wet.
Significant Drought Conditions Have Persisted in the Plains States for Years After Previous “Super El Niño” Events
El Niño events in 1965-66, 1982-83 and 1997-98 are three of the strongest events in recorded history defined as “Super El Niños”. Following those events, especially dry conditions led to, or exacerbated drought across many areas of the Plains. In some cases, those conditions remained for years, even after the El Niño ended. AccuWeather experts believe there is a 70% chance the current El Niño could become a Super El Niño later in 2026.
Could This El Niño Trigger a ‘Mini-Dust Bowl’ Over the Next Few Years?
AccuWeather experts say this El Niño, which began in early June, is expected to be one of the strongest in history and peak later this year. El Niño disrupts weather patterns and can amplify extreme rain in some areas and extreme drought in other areas. AccuWeather experts say this El Niño event is expected to remain through early 2027.
“If the long-term drought is as bad as it could be, and you are starting off already with severe drought, this raises the real possibility of a ‘mini-Dust Bowl’. Soybeans will be stressed further in the months and years ahead, and yields on some of these crops will be reduced in parts of the country. If that happens, it will have a negative impact on food production, leading to price inflation. Furthermore, water supplies will be harmed, as well,” Dr. Myers added.
A Look Back at The Dust Bowl of the 1930s
Once a drought or heat wave begins, in some circumstances, it can create the very conditions that perpetuate it and even make it stronger. During the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, a prolonged hot period dried out the soil and, with low soil moisture, this reduced evaporation and the potential for rain.
Dr. Myers explains this further in his book, Invisible Iceberg: When Climate and Weather Shaped History. Published in 2024, Myers said that when you have very dry conditions, you tend to get higher temperatures, which leads to greater evaporation, which intensifies the drought, which leads to even drier conditions.
“This cycle of drought, heat, drought, heat, extreme dryness, record high temperatures, and so on matters,” Dr. Myers added. “Despite global warming that is occurring, the record high temperatures for many states still stand from the 1930s, 90 years ago.”
In January, Dr. Myers discussed as part of AccuWeather’s Groundbreaking Climate Study that revealed profound climate trends with far-reaching impacts, the following:
“Furthermore, when the soil is drier, there tends to be more dust and soil in the air. Heat then leads to increased drought. You have more soil particles in the atmosphere, more dust competing for nuclei for droplets, so you get more water droplets that are smaller and have trouble falling out of the clouds, so you get less rain. Less rain means drier and hotter soil which brings drought and drought brings heat and you have a cycle that is running away. That is the concern.”
“We are not predicting a Dust Bowl, which was disastrous during the 1930s, to occur now because there were poor farming practices back then and other things that we do better today. But we are taking the situation we are experiencing today very seriously,” said Dr. Myers.
AccuWeather Recent Climate Study Finds Groundbreaking Profound Climate Trends with Far-Reaching Impacts
Earlier this year, AccuWeather climate experts released an important study of climate trends for the contiguous United States. If the climate trends we have identified continue, theyâ¯are likely to have major impacts on the U.S. economy, our food and water supply, human comfort levels, energy needs and the health and welfare of citizens over the coming decades.â¯
AccuWeather expert meteorologists are available to talk about updates, storm reports, and interviews during severe weather. They can be reached outside standard business hours atâ¯support@accuweather.comâ¯or 814-235-8710.â¯
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