AccuWeather® Experts: El Niño is Imminent, Could Have Profound Impacts on the U.S.
News Release Summary
- Quick Start to the Pacific Hurricane Season: Named earlier this week, Tropical Storm Cristina is the third named storm of the Eastern Pacific Season – well ahead of average pace
- Drought Impact: The probability of extreme events increases with a stronger El Niño, including both heavy rain and drought
- Will This Be a “Super El Niño”? AccuWeather is predicting a 40-percent chance this rare event will develop later in 2026
REQUEST AN INTERVIEW | DOWNLOAD FORECAST GRAPHICS | NEWSROOM UPDATES
AccuWeather Global Weather Center – June 10, 2026 - AccuWeather® expert meteorologists say this year’s El Niño will have significant impacts on the United States and warn it could significantly reshape weather patterns across the country.
"El Niño is not a storm. It doesn't affect you directly overnight. But the stronger the signal, the more it can dominate other weather patterns and amplify extremes,” said AccuWeather Expert Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. “This El Niño is developing unusually fast. Most El Niños begin in the fall. This one should start in June and strengthen quickly.”
What It Means for You: The Expected Impacts
- The presence of an El Niño can contribute to more eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes compared to historical average, potentially drawing moisture and heavy rainfall into the Southwest United States, including parts of California. This raises the risk for heavy runoff, debris-rivers, and flash flooding.
- Wind shear (the change in wind speed and direction with height)â¯can suppress tropical storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic basin during an El Niño, potentially lessening the number of named storms that form. Vigilance is still required as even one major storm impact can threaten lives and result in a significant natural disaster.
- There is potential for a drier, warmer summer across the Northwest, Northern Plains, and the Upper Midwest, prolonging ongoing drought in some areas and increasing wildfire risk.
- El Niño often makes its greatest impact in the late fall into early spring. Heavier rain and mountain snow events can occur in California. It can be very wet along the Gulf Coast and Southeast, easing the ongoing drought in those areas.
- A strong southern storm track can raise the likeliness that severe weather can occur during the mid-to-late winter season, typically the drier season in Florida.
- Heightened multi-year long-term drought implications to linger in parts of the Plains from Texas to North Dakota, after the peak of El Niño conditions subside, which can result in pockets of severe to extreme drought extending well into 2027 and potentially beyond.
Hurricane Impact: It Will Be a Busy Year in the Pacific; Risks Remain in the Atlantic
The eastern Pacific Ocean is ahead of schedule, with its third tropical storm, Cristina, named earlier this week. Cristina developed almost a month sooner than the July 6 historical average for the third named storm of the season.
“Warm water is one of the key ingredients in creating tropical storms,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “The rapid pace of early tropical storm development in the Eastern Pacific can be attributed to the near record water temperaturesâ¯observedâ¯in the Eastern Pacific. This is a very typical pattern in an El Niño set up.”
“A marine heat wave is in progress where sea surface temperatures from theâ¯Baja South along the Central American coastline, are three to five degrees Fahrenheit aboveâ¯the historic average, which in some areas is near record levels.” - Alex DaSilva, Hurricane Expert
AccuWeather’s Eastern Pacific Hurricane Forecast predicts there to be 17 to 22 named storms this year.â¯
“While there may be a temporary break in the rapid formation ofâ¯storms after this week, overall trends suggest there will be much higher activity during the first half of the season compared to historical averages,” DaSilva added.
In the Atlantic Basin, El Niño typically generates more wind shear, which is a change of wind direction and speed. This creates less favorable conditions for tropical systems to organize and intensify. AccuWeather’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast projects 11 to 16 named storms in the basin.
“With the El Niño’s arrival early in the hurricane season, we are now leaning closer to 11 named storms rather than 16 in the Atlantic this year,” added DaSilva.
Though the number of named storms could be lower than average, it does not eliminate the threat of homegrown hurricanes that develop close to the U.S. coastline. These storms pose a heightened risk because they leave little time for preparation. It takes only one storm to cause catastrophic damage.â¯â¯People along the coastline and well inland should remain vigilant and monitor threats for tropical rainstorms, tropical storms and hurricanes.
Drought Risk: El Niño Could Intensify Drought in Some Areas
An El Niño can initially produce wet conditions across the southern U.S, but over time, those conditions can turn around and become dryer after the peak of a strongâ¯El Niño event.
“Following the end of El Niño, the next two to three years could end up being significantly drier, leading to drought conditions, especially in parts of the plains from west Texas to the Dakotas,” said AccuWeather Expert Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.⯓El Niño patterns tend to be persistent, meaning places that end up drier than average can stay that way for an extended period of time, possibly for months or even years.”
The persistent pattern is true for regions that see increased rainfall.â¯Theâ¯Southeastâ¯canâ¯face an elevated risk for excessive rainfall and severe weather during the mid-to-late winter season,â¯which is typically the drier season in Florida. Meanwhile, the Northwest can miss out on consistent or intense precipitation during the wet season, leading to longer-term drought conditions even in the years after the peak of a strong El Niño.
Super El Niño: The Rare, High-Impact Event
A “Super El Niño” is a strong and rare El Niño event. It occurs when the water temperatures in the region of the Pacific Ocean near the equator reach 2.0 degreesâ¯Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the historic average. There is a good chance this occurs later in 2026 and continues into 2027.
“There is about a 40-percent chance a Super El Niño forms this year,” said AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. “That bar is difficult to reach, so current factors contributing to the development need to continue in the second half of 2026 to allow it to build.”
A “Super El Niño”, according to the new RONI Index developed by the Climate Prediction Center, has only occurred seven times on record: 1957–58, 1965–66, 1972–73, 1982–83 (strongest on record by value), 1991–92, 1997–98, and 2015–16.
NOAA adopted the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for the 2026 season, which sets a higher threshold for the classification than the previous scale.
FAQ
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean warm to significantly to 0.5 degrees C. above-historical average. This warming triggers a chain reaction in global atmospheric patterns. Storm tracks can shift and create dramatic weather changes across the globe, bringing drought to some areas and dangerous flooding to others.
Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
AccuWeather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher. Forecasters also expect three to five direct impacts on the United States throughout the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Eastern Pacific Hurricane Forecast
AccuWeather is predicting 17 to 22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Exceptionally warm waters working together in an El Niño phaseâ¯will boost tropical activity during the 2026 Eastern and Central Pacific hurricane season, raising the risk of direct impacts in Hawaii, Southernâ¯Californiaâ¯and parts of Mexico.
AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes™
In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeatherâ¯RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors.â¯In order toâ¯better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm on lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss. Some of these hazards, such as inland flooding and storm surge, in many storms result in more deaths and economic loss than wind.
