Trudy rapidly intensifies as Simon struggles; both storms are threatening Mexico's coast
Trudy has joined the long list of major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and will blast the coast of Mexico with high winds and flooding. Meanwhile, Simon is hanging on with some rain and wind near Baja California.
While Simon has weakened to a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific, Trudy is strengthening, which could cause major issues for Mexico’s west coast.
Trudy will remain a powerful hurricane as it tracks just off Mexico's west-central coast through this weekend with high winds, heavy seas and torrential rain. Meanwhile, some of Simon's moisture near Mexico's Baja Peninsula could reach the southwestern United States next week.
Trudy is the latest major eastern Pacific hurricane
While in the warm, undisturbed eastern Pacific waters, Trudy rapidly strengthened on Thursday, going from a 75-mph Category 1 to a 120-mph Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in less than 24 hours. The minimum requirement for a rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone is 35 mph or more in 24 hours or less.
"Some additional strengthening is forecast into this weekend with the hurricane reaching Category 4 or perhaps even 5 intensity, prior to getting close to the Mexico coast," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Trudy is the 10th major hurricane of the 2026 eastern and central Pacific hurricane season, which has thus far included a dozen hurricanes, 22 tropical storms and 23 tropical depressions.
Current forecasts have the eye getting very close to the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco later Saturday night and Sunday. How intense conditions become in the coastal areas of these states will depend on the exact track.
At this time, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico with Trudy is a 3. The RealImpact™ Scale is a 6-point scale, with ratings of less than one and 1 to 5, that accounts for not only wind speed, but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.
Wind gusts ranging from 60-90 mph are forecast along a vast coastal zone from Manzanillo to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust is 100 mph.
The powerful winds pushing across the ocean's surface will create massive deep-sea swells that pose dangers to vessels. As the swells reach the coast, large breakers will lead to erosion and property damage.
A storm surge of a foot or more is forecast from just northwest of Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta, but areas along the Colima and Jalisco coasts are forecast to experience a storm of 6-10 feet.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ surge is 12 feet.
Should the eyewall brush land in these areas, more severe impacts could occur, especially from wind and storm surge.
Much of the coastal area from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta will receive at least 2 inches of rain, which can lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides in hilly terrain. However, a large zone along the coast is forecast to receive 8-12 inches of rain, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 25 inches along the Calima and Jalisco coasts. In these areas, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible.
During early next week, steering winds may weaken with Trudy, similar to what happened to Simon. In that case, Trudy could slowly meander northwestward off the tip of Baja California Sur for a time.
"Since Trudy will be moving into a zone with high wind shear and over churned-up and cooled waters from Simon, a significant loss in wind intensity is likely," DaSilva said. "It is possible that Trudy could fade completely before moving near Baja California Sur."
Simon's days may be numbered
Farther north, "Simon was holding onto tropical storm intensity as of early Friday morning, but further loss of wind intensity is anticipated into this weekend," DaSilva said.
"Simon could degrade to a tropical rainstorm prior to the end of the weekend," DaSilva added.
Some downpours and locally gusty winds from the relatively small storm will spread northward along the Baja Peninsula through this weekend.
Tropical moisture may boost next storm in southwestern US
Some tropical moisture is forecast to be pulled into the southwestern United States early next week and is likely to set off spotty to regional showers and thunderstorms in portions of Arizona and New Mexico.
Later next week, as a large dip in the jet stream pivots into the Southwest states, tropical moisture, perhaps some associated with Trudy, may be drawn into the region.
The jet stream dip will produce its own vast area of showers and thunderstorms, but the tropical moisture injection could give rainfall a boost.
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