Pacific poised for tropical surge as Atlantic shows signs of activity
Atlantic tropical activity has been limited so far this season, but that may soon change as the Gulf shows signs of life. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is displaying a surge of storminess.
A plume of Saharan dust spread across South Florida, creating a hazy sky and reducing visibility. Traffic cameras captured the dusty conditions around Miami-Dade County on July 8.
Other than an area near the Gulf Coast, the Atlantic basin is likely to remain quiet through the end of July. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific, energized by El Niño, could produce multiple named storms simultaneously during the coming days and weeks.
Atlantic remains quiet, but some restrictions may ease
A broad area of dry air, strong wind shear and Saharan dust has suppressed tropical development across much of the Atlantic basin during the past couple of weeks.
"We foresee some of these inhibitive conditions easing slightly during the second half of July, with the traditional areas to watch being the southwestern Atlantic and the Gulf. A weak area of low pressure may also try to form along the north-central to the northeastern Gulf Coast later this week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
The disturbance would develop near a stalled front within a plume of tropical moisture extending into the northern Gulf around the southern edge of a sprawling heat dome. For a tropical depression or storm to develop, a low-pressure area would first have to organize, acquire tropical characteristics and remain over water long enough to strengthen.
“Indications are that the wind shear will drop in the northeastern Gulf this weekend into the start of next week. This, combined with exceptionally warm sea-surface temperatures, about 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit above historical average for this time of year, creates favorable conditions for tropical development,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
DaSilva added, “Heavy rain would likely be the main impact from this storm, likely along the Florida Panhandle and the surrounding southeastern U.S. Depending on the organization and intensity of the storm, heavy rain could also move northward into other Southeast states.”
AccuWeather lowers expected named Atlantic storm count slightly
With El Niño now established over the Pacific and potentially strengthening into one of the strongest events on record this autumn, atmospheric conditions are expected to remain less favorable for Atlantic tropical development. As a result, AccuWeather's tropical weather team has slightly lowered its forecast for the number of named storms this year.
"While our forecast of four to seven hurricanes and two to four major (Category 3 or higher) hurricanes remains unchanged, we have lowered the range of named storms to eight to 14," DaSilva said. The Atlantic averages 14 named storms per season.
So far, the Atlantic has produced only Tropical Storm Arthur. The next name on the list is Bertha.
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Despite the expected lull, the northern and eastern Gulf, the Carolina coast and the western Caribbean remain areas where rapid tropical development can occur. Even in a below-average year for tropical storms and hurricanes, it only takes one storm to cause significant loss of life and catastrophic damage.
Pacific tropical season poised to ramp up rapidly
With the early onset of El Niño and the potential for it to become one of the strongest on record (a super El Niño), the number of tropical storms in the eastern Pacific is expected to reach well into the double digits in 2026. Both tropical storms and hurricanes are forecast to be well above the historical average.
As of Monday morning, July 13, the eastern Pacific had already produced four named tropical storms.
There are a handful of areas that DaSilva and AccuWeather's team of tropical meteorologists are watching for development in the Pacific this week.
"We don't see any direct threats to Hawaii over the next 10 days," DaSilva said. "Several areas of interest are expected to pass well south of the islands. Any threat to Hawaii would not be until late in the month at the earliest due to one of the zones outlooked near Mexico."
Another disturbance near Mexico could strengthen and persist long enough to reach the latitude of the California-Mexico border while remaining hundreds of miles offshore. By then, however, it would likely be a weakening post-tropical system with little or no rain or wind.
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