Spring is on the horizon, but winter weather isn't finished yet
Spring officially begins on March 20, but portions of the country will still struggle to shake off winter conditions past that date
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AccuWeather’s spring forecast is out. The big question: When will spring arrive? AccuWeather’s Paul Pastelok breaks it down.
AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters say some areas will struggle to shake off winter weather well into the spring season, including the chance for spring snow, while others transition quickly to warmth.
AccuWeather's expert meteorologists said the northeast, midwest and the northern Plains will experience a seasonal tug-of-war throughout the upcoming season, with cold air winning the battle more often than springlike warmth, especially early in the season.
"A slower transition to persistent spring warmth can occur from the northern Rockies to the northeast," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. He added that there will be occasional warmups, but they will not last long before the next wave of chilly air arrives.
The extension of cold weather in the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes will keep the door open for snow, especially during the first half of the spring. It will also bring opportunities for late-season frost, which can impact farmers and backyard gardeners.
People across these regions could have to wait until May before warm weather settles in for good and winter coats can be put in the closet.
A passer-by uses an umbrella while walking past tulips in the Boston Public Garden, in Boston, Sunday, April 22, 2012. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Drought can't be ruled out
Spring warmth will arrive much faster across the southern half of the country, with fewer cool spells once winter loosens its grip.
"You go back to last year, it was pretty warm," Pastelok said. "In fact, we had the second warmest spring on record last year. This area of the country again could feel early heat."
In the northwest, the switch from wintry to springlike weather will be delayed, unfolding around the middle of the season. "With the increasing warmth, snowmelt can be faster in April, leading to some isolated flooding near some rivers and streams," Pastelok said.
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Spring also brings severe weather, tornadoes
Severe weather will once again be a major springtime hazard in 2026, even if the season does not mirror the extreme tornado counts seen in 2025. The 1,559 tornadoes tallied last year were above the 15-year historical average of 1,392.
“We are leaning toward fewer tornado reports this spring compared to last year, but that does not mean the season will be quiet,” Pastelok warned. Instead, severe thunderstorms are more likely to trigger damaging winds and torrential rain compared to last year.
The greatest risk for severe weather will focus from the Mississippi Valley into the Gulf states, especially during March and April. In these areas, storms are more likely to produce damaging straight-line winds and flooding downpours, but tornadoes will still pose a threat.
Farther north, cooler and more stable air early in the season may limit severe weather initially across the north-central Plains and Midwest, but that will change later in April and into May.
AccuWeather will release a detailed breakdown of the 2026 severe weather and tornado forecast on March 4.
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Flood risk to rise as warmth settles in
The springtime weather pattern is likely to generate storms that track more slowly across the country, resulting in higher rainfall totals and elevating the risk of flooding.
"Slow-moving storms could produce heavier rain at times along the Gulf Coast, especially from Alabama to northern Florida," Pastelok said. "Severe thunderstorms in March and April can lead to flash flooding and river flooding in parts of Missouri, Kentucky, the lower Ohio Valley as was the case in 2002."
Workers in boats drive along the Stillwater Lift Bridge in the St. Croix River in Stillwater, Minn., Tuesday, April 18, 2023. St. Paul, Stillwater and other Minnesota communities are preparing for major flooding on the Mississippi and St. Croix Rivers.
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