Hurricane Cristobal is moving at an impressive clip this morning over the open waters of the North Atlantic. On its current track it will quickly pass some 300 miles or more to the southeast of Newfoundland and lose tropical characteristics over the next 24 hours as it encounters progressively cooler waters. That said, Cristobal will remain a powerful storm system as it merges with low pressure between Greenland and Iceland over the weekend.
Direct impacts from Cristobal will be minimal in terms of wind or rain, though gusty winds will occur across southeastern Newfoundland early today. Rough surf and rip currents will gradually subside today for Bermuda and along the Northeast coast, and conditions will steadily improve on Saturday across Atlantic Canada.
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will move steadily westward over the next few days, and while environmental conditions are not currently favorable for development, that may change by Sunday as the wave approaches the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Given that this area, along with the Bay of Campeche, is favored areas for quick developing tropical systems this time of year, we will have to keep a close eye on it as it moves westward over the weekend.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave moving off the African coast is not nearly as robust as it appeared that it would be, and as such this system will have a hard time organizing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours with a wealth of dry air in place. Thereafter, conditions may improve enough to support gradual development over the eastern Atlantic, but that is more uncertain than we previously believed. Nevertheless, this feature will bear watching as we head into the first week of September.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins
566 ABNT20 KNHC 290528 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Cristobal, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland, Canada. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the east-central Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next day or two while the system moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could become conducive for some development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing minimal shower activity. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next several days while it moves westward near 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake