Quiet As Heart of Season Approaches

8/31/2014 3:00:00 PM

Cristobal, which is no longer tropical, continues to race northeastward across the North Atlantic and will impact Iceland with some gusty winds and heavy rain over the next few days. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic remains unusually quiet for Labor Day weekend with no named systems and no imminent development.

A tropical wave moving through the northwestern Caribbean continues to gather moisture as it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Eventually, as the tropical wave emerges into the southern Gulf of Mexico, development into a tropical depression or tropical storm is not out of the question as conditions become a bit more favorable for development. Through time, the feature is likely to continue to move westward and, at the very least, bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms to South Texas and northern Mexico toward the middle of the week.

In the central and eastern Atlantic, there are a few clusters of thunderstorms that need to be monitored, but at this point there is no big concern for development.

AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Feerick

2014 Atlantic Storms

Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay
Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura
Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally
Teddy Vicky Wilfred

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National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC Atlantic Activity

ABNT20 KNHC 010551

200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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