Strong Shear Across The Tropics

10/25/2014 4:00:31 AM

A strongly sheared area of low pressure is moving to the northeast of the Bahamas. This low will pass just south of Bermuda tonight and it will cause a round of heavy rain across the islands later today and tonight. Amounts should average 0.50 to 1.00 inches, with some local amounts of 2.00 inches so this will impact clean up efforts from Hurricane Gonzalo.

The sheared remains of Tropical Depression 09 are located just east of the lower Yucatan coast and they will slowly shift east and south through the weekend before stalling near the Honduran or Nicaraguan coast early next week. Since waters are quite warm and there is less wind shear near the Honduran coast, there is some chance of reorganization later this weekend or early next week. However, dry air to the north of the system and interaction with the Central American coast will be inhibiting factors.

High pressure currently over Texas will shift east across Florida early next week before reaching Bermuda by midweek. This will the steer the system into central America or perhaps back into the lower Yucatan Peninsula. The American global model shows the system getting into the southern Bay of Campeche later next week while the European model keeps it over southeast Mexico. The main impact from this system will be heavy rain over parts of central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through next week.

A large tropical wave about halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles will struggle to develop due to strong wind sheer aloft.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck and Meteorologist Steve Travis

2014 Atlantic Storms

Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay
Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura
Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally
Teddy Vicky Wilfred

Atlantic Basin Maps

National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC Atlantic Activity

011 
ABNT20 KNHC 250509
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine.  This
system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the trough
meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


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