Hurricane Joaquin is accelerating east-northeast at about 29 mph with winds holding at 80 mph. This means Joaquin is still a Category 1 hurricane. Over the next few days, the main impact from Joaquin will be on shipping interests. Rough surf and rip currents affecting the East Coast as well as Bermuda will gradually subside over the next few days.
The general east-northeastward motion of Joaquin will cause the tropical cyclone to encounter increased vertical wind shear and cooler water through the middle of the week. These more hostile environmental conditions will cause Joaquin to weaken and become a non-tropical storm system during the day tomorrow.
This non-tropical version of Joaquin will move quickly to the east-northeast and eventually threaten western Europe this weekend with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Depending on the exact track of the system, northern Portugal, northwestern Spain and the British Isles all have the potential to receive some wind and rain.
Elsewhere, we are monitoring a tropical wave around 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This wave is tracking to the west-northwest at 10-15 mph. At this point, we feel further development of this wave is unlikely through Friday due to strong wind shear. However, it will still bring some gusty showers Thursday and Friday to parts of the Lesser Antilles. Beyond Friday, the tropical wave will split into two pieces with one piece tracking more northerly then northeasterly. This piece might encounter more favorable conditions for development this weekend.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Jacob DeFlitch and Dan Kottlowski and Updated by AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jack Boston
351 ABNT20 KNHC 062330 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Joaquin, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. A tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days, but they could become a little more conducive by the end of the week and over the weekend. However, any development of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent $$ Forecaster Pasch