Thunderstorms may threaten south-central US with severe weather this week

Conditions may evolve to not only bring thunderstorms but also the potential for locally severe weather to parts of the south-central United States this week.

As record warmth builds over the Eastern states and colder air pushes southward over the West, an atmospheric battle zone will set up in the middle of the nation.

The consequences of this match-up will primarily be released in the form of repeated heavy rainfall and the risk of flooding. However, near the edges of the heavy rain and warmth, a zone of heavy thunderstorms is likely to erupt.

Some locations from the southern Plains and northwestern Gulf coast to the middle Mississippi and Ohio valleys may have thunderstorms on a nearly daily basis this week.

At this time, it appears most of the thunderstorms through Friday are not likely to be severe. However, there may be some exceptions at the local level, and the overall severe weather risk may increase this weekend.

One such area where severe storms are possible into Wednesday evening will extend from the upper Texas coast and central Louisiana to northwestern Mississippi.

In addition to a flash flood risk, there will be a few storms that bring strong wind gusts, hail and frequent lightning strikes. Minor, sporadic property damage may occur where and when the storms pulse.

Through Wednesday morning, the potential for locally gusty and perhaps a small number of severe storms will extend from central Texas to northern Illinois.

Since severe thunderstorms have been few and far between thus far this year, compared to other winters, the potential for severe weather this week may warrant review of a plan of action from a household to community level.

As of the middle of February, the preliminary count of tornadoes is close to two dozen for 2018, according to the National Weather Service. This is compared to a three-year average of 90 confirmed tornadoes for the same period during 2015, 2016 and 2017.

"Colder conditions during much of 2018, compared to recent prior years has a lot to do the the lower count of tornadoes," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

"With the return of warmth, we have to be on guard for the potential for severe weather, especially with the stormy weather pattern like we have now," Anderson said.

This weekend may bring severe thunderstorms on a regional basis from parts of northeastern Texas to Tennessee.

Whether or not storms become severe and the situation escalates to a pattern that favors the formation of tornadoes will depend on the amount of sunshine and warmth in the area, as well as the location of a zone of strong winds aloft.

At the very least, people spending time outdoors should be prepared to move indoors at the first sign of an approaching thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are at risk for being struck by lightning.

Report a Typo