This Time the GFS
--South Asia:
Let me elaborate. It was the ECMWF that, at some time last week, generated a scenario of a powerful cyclone over the Arabian Sea off Oman or eastern Yemen. However, the numerical forecast model was alone in following this scenario and it was proven to be untrue. The suspect weather system has dissipated this week near Socotra. Meanwhile, the ECMWF, as of Tuesday, conjured up another tropical cyclone scenario, this time culminating in a tropical storm off eastern Oman by one week from Friday.
Now, the latest leg in an ongoing story. The ECMWF has, as of 0000 UTC Wednesday, given up on a major Arabian Sea cyclone, at least through one week from Saturday. And now, the 1200 UTC run has supported this earlier scenario. But wait: the 1200 UTC GFS forecast model has now become an advocate for an Arabian Sea cyclone--and one that would end up landfalling upon southeastern Arabia at the middle of next week.
A few thoughts. First, I do not know whether or not there will be an Arabian Sea tropical cyclone next week. Things do seem to be favorable for a monsoon low or tropical depression westward from southern India. Maybe, in my mind, I see an even chance of there being a tropical depression or cyclone. Thus, I will be watching the numerical forecast scenarios for clues, such as convergence amongst the sundry forecast models.
Having put the cart before the horse, so to speak, I shall now offer the horse:
IMD infrared imagery shows that there is clearly a big, albeit not yet organized, gathering of convective tropical rain spread westward from southern India. This is the area to watch for any Arabian Sea depression or cyclone, and it could quickly take on a cyclonic spin given the "right" circumstances.
--Western Pacific Ocean:
It is now Typhoon Nakri. The JTWC reckon highest sustained winds at 65 knots, or 120 kmh. Movement is very slow--under 5 knots. Over the Philippine Sea 550 miles west-northwest of Guam as of 1200 UTC Wednesday, Nakri is forecast to drift slowly northwestward as a typhoon Thursday and Friday, then to later accelerate toward the northeast as a weakening storm. This should unfold far to the south of Japan but could cross either the Bonin or Volcano Islands.
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