Super Typhoon Usagi Aiming Toward Southern Taiwan

Typhoon Usagi (17W) has intensified into a super typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. We expect Usagi maintain this intensity or even strengthen slightly over the next 12-24 hours. Below is a closeup satellite image of Usagi, showing a classic banding of clouds into the eye of the typhoon. This image is all over open water with Taiwan located to the northwest of the image.

Typhoon Usagi may decrease slightly in intensity by Saturday morning, local time, as it approaches southern Taiwan and interacts with land. At this point, we feel that the center of the typhoon will either make landfall over the extreme southern tip of Taiwan on Saturday morning, local time, or pass by just south of the tip.

Rain and wind will begin to increase across Taiwan on Friday with the worst conditions expected Friday night into Saturday. Destructive wind gusts could be as high as 140 mph right at the southern move tip of Taiwan with gusts of 90-120 mph over southeastern Taiwan and gusts of 80-100 mph over the southwestern corner, west of the mountains. Farther north away from the center, winds will be less, but wind gusts could even reach 40 mph across far northern Taiwan around Taipei.

Rainfall amounts are likely to be around a foot in southern Taiwan and as much as 20-30 inches in the mountains. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides will be a concern. Even far northern areas of Taiwan could have some flooding problems from bands of heavy rain, that can deposit several inches of rainfall.

The Philippines will also be affected, with several inches of rain across northern Luzon and the potential for flooding rains in Manila as the circulation passes by to the north. Rainfall may actually become heavier over this area behind the storm this weekend as a southwest wind on the backside of the system is able to draw tropical moisture northeastward into the area.

Later this weekend, the typhoon will turn more to the west on Saturday night and Sunday, with a second landfall possible in southeastern China, around the Hong Kong area on Sunday or Sunday night. While there will likely be some weakening as the typhoon passes by Taiwan, we still expect it to be a typhoon by the time it reaches southeast China. The potential exists for damaging winds and flooding rains over a heavily populated area.

A tropical disturbance east of Guam will be the next potential area to develop this weekend. Right now, long-range guidance suggests that this system could pass by the Volcano and Bonin Islands but curve away from mainland Japan early next week.

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