Philadelphia's snow drought to end this winter
The ingredients will come together for snowstorms in the Northeast this winter, and it could spell an end to the snow drought in Philadelphia that began more than 600 days ago.
AccuWeather’s long-range experts are warning the snow drought could be broken. Find out what to expect.
Winter is only a few weeks away, and AccuWeather meteorologists say the season is expected to be much different in Philadelphia compared to last winter, especially regarding snowfall.
Meteorological winter begins on Friday, Dec. 1, and runs through the end of February. Astronomical winter starts a few weeks later, getting underway on the solstice on Thursday, Dec. 21, and continuing until the equinox on Tuesday, March 19, at 11:06 p.m. EDT.
First, a look back at a nearly snowless season
•Accumulating snowfall only happened one time last winter when 0.3 of an inch fell in the city on Feb. 1. This is tied for second for the least-snowiest winter since reliable weather records in Philadelphia began in the 1880s. The winter of 1972-73 holds the record, a season when no measurable snow occurred in the city.
•The temperature on Dec. 24, 2022, dropped to 7 degrees, the lowest temperature in Philadelphia in nearly three years, when the mercury bottomed out at 5 degrees on Jan. 31, 2019. The Christmas Eve cold snap was an outlier for last winter, however, with temperatures throughout the season averaging 5.1 degrees above the historical average.
Snowstorms to ramp up after slow start to winter
•The ingredients are forecast to come together this winter for plowable snowstorms across the Northeast, although the storms may hold off until after the start of 2024. "As we get into the back end of the winter season, that will be our best opportunity to see some of these big northeast systems," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok explained.
•AccuWeather is calling for 16-24 inches of snow in Philadelphia this year, right around the historical average of 23.1 inches. Most of this snow is likely to fall during bigger storms rather than a series of smaller snow events. Accumulating snowfall is predicted to occur on 3 to 6 days, below the historical average of 12 snow days.
Philly's snowstorm drought: It has been over 600 days since the City of Brotherly Love measured at least an inch of snow. On Jan. 28-29, 2022, a storm dropped 7.5 inches of powder. Since then, the highest daily snowfall total has been less than half of an inch.
El Niño, ski forecast and more:
•"El Niño is upon us. It came on strong here in late summer, and it will continue to be strong and a dominating factor going into our winter forecast," Pastelok explained. The climate phenomenon occurs when the water near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean is above average for an extended period of time. This change can reshape weather patterns, including a heightened risk of East Coast winter storms.
Last major snowstorm was during an El Niño: The 2015-16 season, an El Niño winter, was the most recent time that a snowstorm delivered more than a foot of snow to the Philadelphia area. On Jan. 22-23, 2016, 22.4 inches of snow were measured.
A family plays on the snow on Independence Mall, Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Skier's delight: The 2023-24 ski season is predicted to be a good one across the Northeast, especially during the second half of the winter and into the start of spring.
Lower heating demand: Despite the forecast for more snow this winter, temperatures throughout the season are predicted to be 1-2 degrees above the long-term average. As a result, it could save residents and businesses some money as the heating demand will be near to below the historical average.
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