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India's historic southwest monsoon to continue withdrawal next week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Oct 9, 2019 2:41 PM EDT

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The 2019 Southwest monsoon finally began to withdraw on Wednesday, lagging more than a month behind normal and setting a new record delay.

This year's monsoon had already moved into uncharted territory last week when it surpassed the previous record late start of the withdrawal which took place on Oct. 1, 1961, according to the India Meteorological Department.

Following months of flooding, a big change in the weather pattern began this week as high pressure ushered drier air into northwestern India.

India flooding 4

Indian men push a small van through a flooded road after heavy rainfall in Ahmadabad, India, Saturday, Aug. 10, 2019. India's monsoon rain runs from June through September. (AP Photo/Ajit Solanki)

AP Photo/Ajit Solanki

The monsoon withdrawal officially commenced in parts of Punjab, Haryana and north Rajasthan on Wednesday, Oct. 9, according to the India Meteorological Department.

The monsoon withdrawal quickly advanced into Uttar Pradesh, northern Madhya Pradesh and the remainder of Rajasthan by Friday.

Despite the monsoon withdrawal beginning in the far northwest, weeks of additional rainfall is expected in southern parts of the country as the dry air slowly builds from northwest to southeast.

People navigate their way through a flooded street as it rains in Mumbai, India, Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2019. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade)

In addition to its historic duration, this year's monsoon has also gone down as one of the wettest in recent decades, with 110% of normal rainfall reported across the country as a whole from June through September. This is the wettest monsoon season since 1994 based on government data.

What makes this season's surplus of rainfall even more dramatic is that a 33% shortage compared to normal was reported across the country during the month of June.

Related:

India Weather Center
Interactive India weather satellite
AccuWeather’s 2019 Asia autumn forecast

This was followed by above-normal rainfall amounts in July and August. The historic duration of this monsoon season allowed heavy rainfall to continue for the entire month of September, which resulted in 152% of normal rainfall.

This surplus of rain grew even higher as rainfall was reported across much of the country during the first week of October, which falls outside of the official monsoon season rainfall.

India AP 7/2

Rescuers and others gather at the spot after heavy rainfall caused a wall to collapse onto shanties, in Mumbai, India, Tuesday, July 2, 2019. More than a dozen people were killed, even as forecasters warned of more rain. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

AP Photo

All the flooding in the months leading up to and during the monsoon claimed the lives of 1,673 people as of Sept. 29, according to the India Home Ministry.

This number may rise even higher as downpours continue across southern and eastern parts of the country over the next few weeks.

The heaviest and most frequent rainfall through early this week will be focused on areas from southern Maharashtra, southward to Kerala. Downpours will also raise the risk of flooding from Telangana to northern Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also bring the risk of localized flooding from West Bengal into northeastern India through Friday, before drier air builds into the region early this week.

Rainfall is forecast to become more widespread in the coming days across Tamil Nadu, including Chennai, where a prolonged drought and water shortages are ongoing.

Downpours will continue to be confined to the southern half of India this week as the monsoon withdrawal slowly advances south and eastward.

The greatest threat for flooding will be from Kerala into southern Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.

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