Across the Atlantic Basin, Hurricane Joaquin is moving away from Bermuda and will not threaten land as a tropical storm anymore. The upper-level low near the Carolina coast responsible for the historic catastrophic flooding in South Carolina is off the northern Florida coast with a surface low moving over warm water. Currently this is a cold core system and is not expected to become an organized tropical system. An area of low pressure over the central North Atlantic is showing a symmetrical area of convective showers and thunderstorms. This system could become an organized tropical system within the next couple of days or so before it starts to encounter increasing vertical wind shear.

Joaquin passed about 70 miles west northwest of Bermuda late Sunday evening, causing tropical storm-force winds with gusts to near hurricane force and heavy rainfall to that group of small islands. Since then the hurricane has continued to move northeast. The stronger winds and heavier rain are now moving away from Bermuda and that group of small islands should see improving weather the rest of today. Joaquin will remain over relatively warm water for about the next two days. However, vertical wind shear will increase over the tropical cyclone and this will cause the hurricane to weaken further today and Tuesday. Later Wednesday and Wednesday night, Joaquin will start to track over colder water and experience very strong wind shear. This will cause the tropical cyclone to transition to a non-tropical storm system as it moves into the northeast Atlantic.

Long-range computer forecasts show Joaquin getting caught into a strong upper-level jet stream that will help carry the storm toward the United Kingdom. However, recent computer forecast suggest the system might stall then head southeast toward southwest France or Portugal this coming weekend.

The upper-level low that has brought phenomenal flooding in South Carolina this past weekend is moving off the northern Florida coast and is supporting a weak surface low. This surface low is projected to move slowly northeast almost in tandem with the upper-level low. The surface low should head northeast under a strongly sheared environment. Since this is currently a cold core system, it is unlikely to acquire tropical characteristics during the next few days. However, we will closely watch this system as it passes just west and north of Bermuda.

An area of low pressure near 14 north, 43 west or roughly about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is moving west-northwest at about 10-15 knots. The low is associated with a tropical wave along 43 west south of 21 north. The poorly organized tropical feature will continue to move west-northwest. Currently, the system is in an environment with low shear, warm moist air and warm ocean water temperatures. These favorable conditions should allow this system to become better organized and there's some chance this system could become an organized tropical system within the next 12-36 hours. Beyond 36 hours computer forecasts show increasing vertical wind shear over the system. This debilitating shear will cause this system to weaken and become less organized. Computer forecasts show this system eventually moving over the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and Thursday of this week as a very disorganized area of clouds and convective showers.