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Tropical moisture fueling flash flooding risk in Texas, Southeast

Tropical moisture will stall from Texas to the Carolinas this weekend, producing heavy rain and thunderstorms that will be capable of causing flash flooding problems well into next week.

By Alex Duffus, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Jul 9, 2026 11:35 AM EDT | Updated Jul 11, 2026 5:50 AM EDT

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Flash flooding may be in the forecast for a large swath of the South this weekend.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are set to return to expand across much of the interstates 10 and 20 corridors of the Southeast from this weekend to early next week. The downpours could be heavy enough to deter outdoor plans, flood roads and put some people at risk.

While the Atlantic hurricane season remains quiet, tropical moisture can still produce dangerous impacts, which could be the case this week.

Downpours, flash flood risk to expand east

Farther east, showers and thunderstorms are poised to increase in coverage and intensity as the western Gulf storm fades inland over Texas this weekend.

The South and Gulf Coast states are expected to experience a prolonged period of wet weather patterns from late this weekend through Tuesday.

"The combination of the frontal zone and tropical moisture from the Gulf will combine forces to unleash rounds of downpours and thunderstorms from central and northeastern Texas to northern Florida and the Carolinas," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Sosnowski said. "Slow-moving individual downpours and where rain repeats each day will raise the risk of urban and low-lying area flooding."

There is a risk of downpours overwhelming pumping operations in New Orleans, where some of the heaviest rain may fall. A slight shift of this boundary into early next week will lead to some areas receiving multiple inches of rain, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches.

People living along streams or in flood-prone areas are encouraged to closely monitor the forecast into next week. Streams and bayous can quickly rise due to persistent downpours over multiple days. Road washouts are also possible in areas of heaviest rain.

The rain could bring some benefit to drought-stricken areas.

Drought conditions have remained across portions of northeastern Texas and much of Arkansas this summer. Severe drought also continues from the Florida Panhandle to the Carolinas.

More stories of interest:

Flash flood risk reaches extreme levels from Missouri to Tennessee
Global oceans break June temperature record
Dangerous heat to reach from Salt Lake City to Minneapolis, Philly


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