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Severe Cyclonic Storm Maha turning toward northwest India

By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Nov 4, 2019 5:25 PM EDT

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A visible image of Maha on Wednesday, when it was showing signs of weakening as it approached the coast of northwestern India. (Image: NASA/NOAA/NRL)

While Maha has turned back toward India, AccuWeather meteorologists are watching another tropical disturbance in the Bay of Bengal.

Maha developed near southeastern India during the middle of last week and followed a path just off the coast of India through the end of the week, following a path similar to former Super Cyclonic Kyarr.

The storm slowly moved in a northwest direction while strengthening over the last few days. It became an extremely severe cyclonic storm on Monday, equivalent to a Category 3 major hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean.

Maha is now moving eastward and weakening as it heads toward the Gujarat region of western India.

The coastline and offshore waters along northwestern India are likely to have dangerously rough seas as the storm approaches. Boaters should heed local warnings.

On Sunday, India's Coast Guard deployed ships and aircraft along the coast of northwestern India to warn boaters to return to the nearest port.

#MahaCyclone @IndiaCoastGuard has deployed 7 ships & 2 Aircraft off Gujarat coast for warning fishing boats at sea and advising them to return to nearest port. #ICG assets continue to be on high alert and are kept standby for immediate mobilisation @DefenceMinIndia @CMOGuj

— Indian Coast Guard (@IndiaCoastGuard) November 3, 2019

As Maha approaches the coast, it will move into an environment of higher wind shear, which will cause the storm to weaken gradually.

On Wednesday, the cyclone weakened to a severe cyclonic storm, equivalent to a strong tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean. Then it became a deep depression on Thursday.

"Forward speed will increase with a weakening Maha expected to strike Gujarat into Thursday," stated AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

Although Maha will be weakening as it approaches land, strong wind gusts and some heavy rain are possible across the region.

Damaging wind gusts will be most likely near the coast of Gujarat and northwestern Maharashtra, especially on the southern and eastern side of the center of the storm.

The weakening process will increase as Maha moves closer to the coast and continues to move inland, but flash flooding will still be a threat regardless of the storm's strength.

Rounds of tropical downpours and locally heavy rainfall will stretch from the Gujarat coast to southern and eastern Rajasthan as well as northern Madhya Pradesh during the middle and second half of the week.

This amount of rainfall can amount to flooding, especially in poorly drained or low-lying areas.

The cyclone will also help to pull tropical moisture across southern India with locally heavy rainfall possible elsewhere along the coast of Maharashtra as well as Karnataka and Kerala.

Maha may not be the last tropical feature to bring impacts to India through the beginning of November.

Related:

India Weather Homepage
AccuWeather's Tropical Headquarters
AccuWeather's 2019-2020 Asia winter forecast

AccuWeather meteorologists have been monitoring the lingering energy from what was once Tropical Storm Matmo, a tropical system that crossed the western Pacific Ocean and made landfall in Vietnam late in October.

Satellite loop of what was once Tropical Storm Matmo in the western Pacific Ocean on Wednesday evening, local time. The storm is expected to strengthen into a cyclonic storm over the next couple of days. (Image/NOAA)

This feature organized into a tropical depression over the Bay of Bengal late on Tuesday and strengthened into a cyclonic storm on Thursday.

The cyclone was given the name Bulbul by the India Meteorological Department.

By the weekend, Bulbul is expected to begin tracking to the northwest toward northeastern India.

Residents in Odisha and West Bengal should keep an eye on this feature and the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas through the weekend.

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