Chances low for strengthening of tropical disturbance crossing Caribbean Sea this week
While odds are against a tropical disturbance becoming a depression and named storm, the center of the system will travel across the open waters of the Caribbean Sea this week.
The feature entering the eastern Caribbean, once dubbed 96L, remains disorganized and is not expected to overcome dry air and Saharan dust.
This image, centered on the Caribbean Sea, was taken during Tuesday midday, August 6, 2019. It shows a small batch of clouds with showers and thunderstorms beneath. Dry air can be seen surrounding the system with dust on the southern and eastern flank. (NOAA / Satellite)
"Dry, dusty and stable air continues to inhibit the development and organization of this system, even though it is tracking through a zone of warm water and relatively low wind shear," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
Because the system is so weak, it is taking a more westerly path, rather than a west-northwesterly drift.
The feature is expected to remain on a path where conditions are not conducive for tropical development.
Even though development is not expected, this feature will bring a slight uptick in thunderstorm activity across the islands of the northern Caribbean as the week progresses.
During the second half of the week, Jamaica may experience the greatest uptick in thunderstorms since the island is farther south than most of the islands in the northern Caribbean.
Vacation plans can be disrupted for a time, and there can be a few incidents of flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.
During the middle of last week, another tropical disturbance brought drenching downpours and localized flooding to Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands.
However, parts of the Caribbean are in need of rain. According to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, southern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands were in the midst of a moderate to severe drought as of July 30.
Otherwise, there are no tropical waves crossing the Atlantic Ocean that show signs of developing this week.
On average, close to 60 tropical waves are produced over Africa and move westward across the Atlantic each year. During the period from August to September, a tropical wave emerges from Africa every two to four days.
When a tropical storm or hurricane develops from one of these waves, it is considered to be a Cabo Verde or Cape Verde system, named for a group of islands near the west coast of Africa.
In general, the Cabo Verde disturbances and storms tend to be pushed along by the clockwise circulation around a semi-permanent high pressure area over the central Atlantic Ocean.
Meanwhile, Flossie in the Pacific Ocean remains on a path that will take the storm very close to Hawaii early this week.
As the storm's weakening trend continues, rough surf and an increase in drenching showers will be Flossie's main impacts on Hawaii.
Download the free AccuWeather app to keep track of the latest tropical activity. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
