V-Storm: Valentine`s Week Winter Storm Hype
UPDATE: Be sure to check out Paul Yeager's Blog (PREMIUM | PRO) where he pinpoints the storm (now over the Eastern Pacific) that will eventually be next week's East Coast winter storm. Also check out Meteo Madness Man's Blog (PREMIUM | PRO) for his thoughts on the upcoming storm.
ORIGINAL POST:
You'll see a lot of hype in our headlines today, talking about a pattern change that the models see coming for next week. I don't want to dwell on Forecast Models [JessePedia] predictions which are 10 days out, but I will say a couple of quick things.
1. The storm on the GFS model late next week is a very strong, classic Nor'easter. Think 28.80" off of Nantucket. Wow.
2. The GFS does have a major snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
6-HOUR PRECIP TYPE
3. The DGEX (which is based off of the GFS but is higher-res) we're going to have to wait on -- its last forecast point, Hour 192, shows the storm spreading from the mid-Atlantic northeastward but it doesn't go far enough out to see if it's a Nor'easter or not.
REMEMBER... this is 10-12 days away and there's plenty of time for the models to change. It wouldn't be the first time that the GFS has disappointed us this far out. BUT... our point that we are finally getting into a stormier pattern for the East is probably valid. And the GFS believes that the cold will be back (after a brief attempt at approaching normal this weekend). It says that here in Central PA, we'll be back down below zero on the 15th and again on the 22nd. So the question now is: Where will all the storms go? And that's something that only time will tell.
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