V-Storm: The Valentine`s NE Cat 3 Blizzard?

UPDATE: The NWS here in State College has issued a statement on the storm and Henry has a list of snow totals up. The NWS issuance is fairly rare this far out so they must think this storm means business. They say:

They make a good point too about the snow starting earlier than one might think...

Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) is bolder than I could be at this juncture and has posted a list of snow totals for major cities, predicting a foot or more in southern PA, eastern PA, New Jersey, Maryland and Connecticut. His Top Totals:

Harrisburg/York - 16"
Johnstown - 14"
Scranton, Allentown, Northern New Jersey - 12-18"
Allentown - 12-18"
Hartford - 12-18"
Hagerstown, MD 12-16"

The full list is on his blog (PREMIUM | PRO).

AccuWeather has yet to issue an official accumulation map, but keep an eye on our Weather Headlines, we'll probably put one out tomorrow. As for the models, nothing much new -- the 18Z GFS was consistent, the NMM isn't out yet and the 18Z DGEX is trying to rob the coastal areas of snow by mixing in sleet and then rain (see below). But I wouldn't put a lot of stock in this yet, we're going to see a lot of model changes as we move forward. The DGEX is about to check out anyway, as it doesn't start forecasting until after Day 3.5.

ORIGINAL POST:

It might be time for me to get out that snow blower for its virgin run. The Forecast Models [JessePedia] are starting to agree on a heavy snowstorm in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast for mid to late next week; here are some sample maps.

The DGEX is all over it; here it is on Valentine's Day evening showing heavy snow in the Northeast (after dropping it on the mid-Atlantic).

The GFS shows a classic Nor'easter delivering heavy snow to the populated areas Valentine's Day morning.

By Friday, it has a low-pressure system at 28.40" Hg (the equivalent of a CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE) making landfall in the Canadian maritimes.

And even the NMM, which can't see out that far yet, seems to be taking a similar path with the storm, showing heavy snow approaching the northeast on Valentine's Day Eve.

And last but not least, the European model (which doesn't produce winter maps) shows a strong storm developing in the Carolinas on Valentine's Day morning (see below). The ECMWF won't let us show maps further out than that publicly, but I can tell you that it moves the storm up the Northeast coast, "bombing out" at 28.70" when moving onshore into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday morning.

Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) is very excited. I would still caution, though, as our graphic does below, that it's still too early to tell and the path of the storm could still cause snow lovers in New England to be disappointed. If the models are consistent on today's solution through Monday afternoon, then I'll be hyped. Here's where the storm will be Monday and our official "prediction" for later progress:

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