The Weather Is Boring; The Models Are Crazy!
Just a note to express a couple of things that I have felt strongly over the past couple of weeks:
1. The weather is boring across most of the country, other than this extreme cold outbreak (I'm sitting at 11 degrees this morning; my normal low is 27). This will continue next week, except in the Plains where a major winter storm may spin up. Note that, with a trough keeping the Plains somewhat interesting, ridges keep both coasts (where the major population is) in a boring weather pattern.
I addressed the lack of snow storms somewhat in Wednesday's blog entry, but I didn't talk about the models specifically.
2. The Forecast Models [JessePedia] seem to have given us a lot of hype and bad predictions lately, and they aren't agreeing with each other or themselves from run to run. This is causing rampant hype but rarely any big storms. This is something that the meteorologists here at AccuWeather have noticed, and also the amateur Forum forecasters have noticed. It seems worse than ever! Henry (PREMIUM | PRO) said yesterday in his video blog: "The long-range [models are] becoming a nightmare! I have no trust in these models anymore."
Some possible reasons:
A. We just don't remember how bad they were last year (meteorological knowledge seems to have a shelf life of about a season).
B. Models are always bad during a transition season such as Fall which we are in now because conditions are changing so rapidly.
C. It is something about the climatic period that we're in (as measured by ENSO, AO, JMO, El Nino, La Nina, and other acronyms that are used to describe our current pattern). Some patterns are known to throw the models for a loop, and we might just be in one of them.
D. The "real" model data is being held back by the government in a vast something-wing conspiracy theory. Jack Bauer is investigating, and you can bet he'll get to the bottom of it. The GFS model *may* be tortured.
The weather is a little more interesting in Europe, where Venice flooded last weekend and several major winter storms have had a big impact.
Report a Typo
