The Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Drought, My Winter

UPDATE: As requested in the Comments, I will post the numbers for Washington National airport later this morning when NCDC wakes up (their website is down at the moment). However, they are not that different. Here's what I have so far:

Average / Thru 1/31 / %Age (There was no additional snow between 1/31 and 2/5)9.2" / 1.9" / 21%

NOTE: I had an error in the percentages which has been corrected - I was calculating against the "through 2/4 snow" instead of "through 1/31" which is more correct because my average snow is "through 1/31."

One of the most frequent things I hear on the Forums and on the Blog Comments is that people in the Mid-Atlantic have been shafted by this winter season's snowfall so far (and so was Philly, up until Wednesday). And, to be honest, I'm kind of one of those people. But I refused to address it at the end of December due to lack of data - if you average 2" of snow by Christmas and you haven't had any yet, does that really count statistically?

Anyway, now that January is over, I decided to take a look at the snowfall amounts so far versus average, and found out that some of these people are well justified in their complaints.

Here's a look at the winter so far for major East Coast cities - average snow through January 31st, actual snow during that period, and actual snow through February 4th.

It's easy to see from the graph (which is ordered from left to right in descending average snowfall) and the percentages of normal snowfall through the end of January that Boston - 222% of normal, Portland (Maine) - 144% of normal, and Pittsburgh - 134% of normal, are having banner years.

Roanoke and Richmond, VA have had almost no snow this winter, even though they should have had 11.9" and 7.4" respectively, by now. Baltimore, D.C, and Greensboro have had a little more, but are still only at 25% their normal seasonal snowfall.

These numbers changed slightly for all locations with the snow this week, but there is no way to get a percentage increase (because we don't know the average snowfall by day). Philadelphia, however, went from below normal to above normal snowfall this season, due only to Wednesday's 7.6 inches of snow.

Actual snowfall amounts from AccuWeather.com Premium drawn from NWS data (note that large cities may have several climate locations which have greatly differing snowfalls). Averages from NCDC.

So there you are, mid-Atlantic, there's your proof. You snow lovers really are suffering thus far. I wish you the best for the rest of this winter season. I'm going to post this to the Forums too, and if you want to argue whether or not "winter is over" you can do it there.

P.S.: I didn't examine previous years but if you want to compare amounts, here are previous winters courtesy the NCDC COOP Snow GIS system: 2003-2004 | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 | 2007-2008

As far as *my* winter so far, I will present below a summary of my winter so far in State College, Pennsylvania, home of AccuWeather HQ [Google Map], as I did at the beginning of 2009. My thoughts are similar to that report: The cold has been brutal, but we haven't had much snow. Quantifying the latter statement successfully depends on who you ask. Here are the stats:

Average Snowfall Through January 31st (Penn State): 30.0" (seasonal is around 47")Actual Snowfall Through February 5th: 22.7" (Penn State)Actual Snowfall Through February 5th: 26.3" (KUNV Airport)Actual Snowfall Through February 5th: 14.0" (Jesse)

Why am I so low? Two reasons. One, I don't personally measure snowfall with a number if it looks like it's under an inch (a "dusting"), even though technically that's not meteorologically sound. To me, a dusting is not a significant snowfall. Two, I measure ice (freezing rain & sleet) separately, while PSU & UNV lump them in with snow. I say there's been 14" of snow this season plus 4.5" of sleet and freezing rain, plus a bunch of dustings. That amount of 4.5" of ice is remarkable, and I've already talked about what the reason for that is. So to me, against that normal 30" of snow, it's been a disappointing winter (although that's not really fair because the average DOES include those dustings).

At the end of December, I said:

Since November 15th... we've had 42 out of 46 days with either a trace of snow, ice or snow and ice cover.

I will update this to say:

Since November 15th... we've had 80 out of 87 days with either a trace of snow, ice or snow and ice cover.

So that means that, while the total snowfall has been disappointing so far, it seems like it's been a "snowy" winter because there has been snow around almost the whole winter, which is a testament to the cold weather we've been having (and the ice, which melts slower and keeps snow cover on the ground longer).

And just how cold has it been? The average temperature departure for the whole period has been -1, or -2 if you calculate sine November 15th. And the low temperature hasn't been above freezing (32 F) since November 16th, but that's par for the season (average lows range from 17-32 during this period). The average temperature for the whole day has only been below normal for 46 out of the 80 days since November 15th, but has dipped below normal much further (-22) than it has spiked above (+12).

But the more impressive point was the coldness in January (see graph above) - Between Jan. 9 and 30th only 4 days featured above normal average temperatures. The other thing was the number of mornings below 10 degrees (12!) and how many afternoons have been below 20 degrees (7!). That's cold, and after the cold spell in mid-November to December, I'm starting to tire of the cold air.

Here's a complete list of the winter storms so far:

- Nov. 9th: First Trace of Snow - Nov. 21st: First Significant Snow (Dusting) - Nov. 24th: An Inch of Sleet, An Inch of Snow, FIrst Ground Covering - Nov. 27th: White Thanksgiving (Photos From 11/26) - Dec. 11th: Moderate Freezing Rain Followed by Dusting of Snow (Photos 12/11 & 12/12) - Dec. 19th: Heavy Freezing Rain after Sleet, Snow (Photos) - Dec. 21st: Another Dusting of Snow (Photos) - Dec. 24th: Heavy Freezing Rain Melts Ground Snow/Ice (Photos) - Dec. 25th: White Christmas In Milesburg, PA (but not here) - Jan. 6th: Another Heavy Rain & Sleet Storm (Photos) - Jan. 10th: Our Biggest Snow - 3 Inches! (Photos) - Jan. 15th: Another Snow - 2 Inches (Photos) - Jan. 18th: Another 2 Incher (Photos) - Jan. 27th: Heavy Snow Shower w/ Big Flakes (Photos) - Jan. 30th: Same As Above (Photos)

Like last time, You can download the spreadsheet here, here's an explanation of the "J" columns:

J SNO: My estimate of snowfall for each date, based on memory (and a ruler if it's over 2 inches); under 1 inch equals a Trace which does not contribute to the total. J ICE: My estimate of freezing rain + sleet for each date, based on memory (and a ruler if it's over 2 inches). J CVR: My estimate of the maximum snow cover each day (at any time of day) based on my webcam archives. Does NOT include cover from shoveling or plowing - must be naturally occurring).

Report a Typo