Severe Weather, Flooding Threat?

With a nod towards Spring, the Forecast Models [JessePedia] have been hinting this week at the possibility for a severe weather outbreak this weekend in the Plains and possibly Southeast. Flooding may also be a concern in areas where there has been significant snow melt this week, or where snow and ice is currently on the ground and will melt from the rain, or clog city drains and ice jam rivers.

At this time, the GFS predicts the bulk of the rain to fall in the Plains and not nearly as much in the Northeast.

The NMM and GFS are fairly consistent with the CAPE, one of many Severe Weather Indices [JessePedia] from the Forecast Models [JessePedia], being high across the Central Plains on Saturday and lower but still significant in a narrow area sweeping across the Southeast Sunday.

The Lifted Index is also high in the Central Plains Saturday per the NMM, then moves eastward, while the GFS is not impressed with the Southeast on Sunday and keeps significant LI's out of that area.

Below is the official forecast map that we have (updated early Thursday morning). Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) says "We have warm air to the south and chilly air to the north, and it does not take much to mix to the two together to generate big storms. It's almost as if we are going into a springtime weather pattern at the end of February."