Puerto Rico System Could Be Carolina Hurricane

UPDATE (5 PM): The NHC reports that Tropical Storm Fay has formed.

ORIGINAL ENTRY:

Here is a look at the non-tropical* system over Puerto Rico, via Enhanced Infrared satellite last night:

*The NHC issued a statement last night saying:

Local buoy observations have shown winds only as high as 33 knots to the northeast of the center this morning.

RE: Heavy Rain, you've got that right. Downpours have been falling in Puerto Rico, to the tune of 13 inches offshore, with pockets of 4.5" northwest of Ponce and on the coast in southern Salinas county and near Central Aguirre, according to Doppler-Estimated Storm Total precipitation charts from AccuWeather.com RadarPlus (click here to download* radar loops from the storm so far):

While the NHC seems to be brushing the system off, AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL) said in his blog this morning:

The current model tracks generally support this scenario, with several models saying that a Cat 3 Hurricane should be off the Southeast coast on Wednesday.

Remember though, AccuWeather.com has not yet issued a forecast for this storm (except the graphic below), and there is plenty of time for things to change, and the AccuWeather.com forecast was wrong about the last storm we thought would hit the Carolinas -- though the big difference here is the timing; Bertha was being predicted more than a week in advance. This means there's less chance for the atmosphere to change Fay's destined course.

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