NWS, Ensembles on Rumors of Eastern Storm

We are keeping an eye on (yet another) possible snow event for the East Coast late this weekend. I think the NWS in State College said it best:

Here are some maps from the latest (06Z) GFS Ensembles, which should be portrayal of how confident the GFS model is in itself:

PRESSURE: The image above shows a decent, but not strong coastal low pressure system. The range of strength however is plus or minus 8 millibars (orange) - the difference between a strong storm and a non-event. SUMMARY: Still too soon to tell whether there will be a major storm on the GFS.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES: Temperatures look OK for the big cities, but we're talking 32 degrees plus or minus 2 or 3. Again this could be the difference between a rain storm and a snow storm. SUMMARY: Still too soon to tell what will happen in the major cities from the GFS.

HEAVY PRECIP: Some ensemble members say that a quarter inch of rain (several inches of snow if it's cold enough) are possible over the Mid-Atlantic (and later, in much of the Northeast). But some say it's off the coast. SUMMARY: Still to soon to tell if heavy enough precip will be on land.

The NWS in Philadelphia also had an interesting comment:

I think if I had to gauge the feeling on the Forums thread this morning, I'd say that posters are more optimistic for this storm than the last one, in part due to more models being on board, and comments from the NWS like the above.

Henry (PREMIUM | PRO) had a good video up about it yesterday (in which said he "wasn't biting") and will again today; Elliot Abrams (PREMIUM | PRO) "almost had to laugh" looking at the different model predictions during the last day or so. AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL) said on his BigDog video this morning that he believes the Canadian model has the best idea on the storm (further west than others), and if the big cities lose their snowstorm, that may come from rain instead of lack of precip. Later today our Breaking Weather News Page (PREMIUM | PRO) page will also feature a video with his speculation on the storm and the rest of the winter.