Northeast Spring Flood Is Coming... But Where?
NOTE: Official information on AccuWeather.com's flood forecast this week can be found in our news story. Here I want to give some additional unofficial information and thoughts.
I blogged ten days ago comparing the amount of water in the current situation (both in snow, and rain expected to fall) versus the Johnstown, PA Flood in the Spring of 1936. The good news for Johnstown (and coastal New England) is that the snow pack is virtually gone there.
The bad news is that the amount of water held in the snow in interior New England (source) has nearly doubled with Sunday's snowstorm. In addition, 30-day rainfall (source) has continued to run far above normal over much of the Northeast (200-300%), and that combined with the rainfall expected (even without snow).
The GFS weather model's total rainfall expected this week is shown below; the NMM is a little drier, and the ECMWF (which I can't show here) is much wetter and further west, running 2-3 inches of rain up the spine of the Appalachians.
In New England, two inches of rain, depending on where it falls, will be devastating. The big question is where, exactly, the heavy rain will fall, and that's something the models aren't agreeing on yet.
Rivers are already near flood stage in Ohio and Connecticut, so any additional rain in this week will be a problem for them. All these factors considered, it's going to be a difficult factor and anyone living in the Northeast should be prepared for potential flooding this week. Check out these crazy flood pictures from AccuWeather.com Facebook Fan Scott P. in Connecticut yesterday:
