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Weather Blogs / WeatherMatrix

Models: Big Severe Outbreak

By Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Sep 15, 2006 11:48 AM EDT | Updated Sep 16, 2006 8:45 PM EDT

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I should have blogged about this earlier; AccuWeather.com Premium's Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity (PREMIUM | PRO) has been talking about it for days. A long severe weather outbreak is expected over the weekend into early next week, something that we haven't seen since early August.

Here's where the Severe Weather Indices [JessePedia] from the Forecast Models [JessePedia] predict the maximum chance for severe weather will be. The NMM model believes that Saturday evening's outbreak will be the worst, especially in the eastern Dakotas. The GFS disagrees, showing that Sunday evening's outbreak in the Arklatex region will be more severe. Neither is bullish on today's or Monday's outbreak.

nmmcape915as

NMM CAPE PEGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON PLAINS

nmmli915as

NMM LI SAYS SAME...

gfscape915as

GFS CAPE SHOWS MAX IN LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING

gfsli915as

GFS LI SAYS ARKANSAS AND ARKLATEX SUNDAY EVENING

The government's Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Slight" risk of severe storms for each of the areas mentioned below. Henry says in his blog yesterday:

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Jesse Ferrell
AccuWeather Meteorologist and Social Media Manager Jesse Ferrell covers extreme weather and the intersection of meteorology and social media.
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