Late-Week Snowstorm: NMM, Last 8 GFS Runs

UPDATE: The 12Z NMM is now in and has shifted the track to the west slightly. More disappointing for the major cities, but more exciting for us here at State College, Pennsylvania, home of AccuWeather HQ [Google Map]. The 12Z GFS is nearly identical to the previous run.

ORIGINAL POST:

We now have the benefit of the NMM, the preferred short-term Forecast Model [JessePedia], predicting the end-of-week storm. It says (on the overnight 06Z run) that the snow will fall between Thursday and Friday morning, and will affect an area in the Northeast between the coast and the mountains (with rain to the east):

The 06Z GFS agrees almost completely on placement and timing (for Snow Cover which, southeast of Canada and northern New England, means snowfall from this system).

I also thought it might be interesting to compare the last 8 runs of the GFS Snow Cover maps, so I posted them below. The good news is: The GFS has always said someone in the Northeast will get some decent snow; the bad news is, it keeps moving the area around. Yes, there's still time for the models to blow it, and I won't get really excited until the 12Z runs agree, but based on the 06Z runs, I'd say it's time for Henry to make a snowfall map :) At this point, I'm surprised the storm is not showing up in the AccuWeather.com forecast yet.