Inside Info on our 2009 Hurricane Forecast...
As you can see from our Breaking Weather News Page (PREMIUM | PRO), our 2009 Hurricane Forecast has been released (full text version only available here). Below is a good video covering it, which is also available En Espanol!
. The forecast has been picked up by MarylandWeather had a good article on it, providing a map of East Coast 1950's hurricanes, which is something that Joe has been mentioning for the last few years.
This is the nuts and bolts of the forecast, headed up by AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL):
2009 PRELIMINARY HURRICANE FORECAST:
Total Storms: 12-13 Hurricanes: 8 Major Hurricanes: 2
2009 IMPACTS ON THE UNITED STATES:
Number of Storms: 4 Hurricanes: 3 Major Hurricanes: 1
Usually I give out some inside information based on the presentation that J.B. does for internal employees (which I attended Monday). But this year we've actually given access to a 45-minute video of JB explaining things (see below) so I don't have as much "inside info" as usual. That said, I'd like to reiterate the points in the press release and video:
- This Atlantic season will be less active than last year - Intensity of storms will be higher further north than deep Tropics (see map below) - A handful of hurricanes will still hit the U.S. - Where they hit will be somewhat random - Strong La Niña will turn into weak El Niño
The last point is related to the one before it - because ENSO (the state of La Niña or El Niño) will be neutral or weak this hurricane season, high pressure areas will not stay still long enough to congregate tracks into "bunches" like they have the last couple of years (remember, hurricane movement is all about getting caught between the cogs of upper-air high and low pressure systems).
Current "MEI" ENSO Index:
Negative values of the MEI (blue) represent the cold ENSO phase, a.k.a.La Nina, while positive MEI values (red) represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño).
Here's a 3-part 45-minute in-depth video with J.B.:
Bullet Points from the video at the top:
2009 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FACTORS:
- La Niña Reversing To Weak El Niño - Average Water Temps Still Higher Than Normal - Cooler Water In Atlantic Breeding Grounds (See Map Below) - More African Dust
RESULT OF FACTORS:
1 Number of Coastal Impacts Back to Normal 2. Less Storms Than Last Season 3. Overwhelming Number West of 55° Longitude
Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies:
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