EDU, Hype: Thanksgiving Hurricane?

UPDATE: The 12Z model has removed the storm from the forecast. But our meteorologists here were not surprised. It's a little known fact that the 6Z and 18Z (overnight and afternoon) runs of the GFS and other Forecast Models [JessePedia] are generally more inaccurate than the 00Z and 12Z (evening and morning) programs. Unfortunately, the 6Z and 18Z runs come out during times when weather weenies and meteorologists are wide awake and checking the maps (about 8 am and 8pm). So hype spreads.

Why the difference in accuracy? Weather balloons, measuring the true state of the atmosphere, are only sent up for the 00Z and 12Z runs of the models. During these intermediate periods, satellite or other estimations of the atmosphere's content are used. Although that data is more granular (satellites can see everywhere, upper-air sounding stations -- balloon stations -- are hundereds of miles apart), it tends to disagree with the previous manually-measured atmospheric conditions. This is either because the data really is more inaccurate, or we just haven't learned the right equations to handle it in the computer models.

ORIGINAL POST:

There is some hype (from the 6Z GFS) making its way around the office, and Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) is the main instigator.

It seems that after falsely* predicting a Labor Day Hurricane in New York City, the GFS computer forecast model is now hyping a Florida hurricane hit during Thanksgiving weekend. Here's the map of landfall:

But if you look closely at the pressure readings, the storm maxes out at only 995 mb (29.35" or so) pressure and 35-knot winds in the Gulf, which might not even qualify as a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale [WikiPedia]. So we're really talking about a Tropical Storm here. Still, it's reason for hurricane buffs to get excited, as we haven't even seen any Atlantic tropical activity since Isaac at the end of September.

*Falsely, on prediction of a hurricane off the mid-Atlantic coast on September 2nd-4th (Labor Day). Although a hurricane did not hit the East Coast at all during the week of Labor Day, and no tropical storm was ever off the coast of the mid-Atlantic that week, there was Ernesto. A Tropical Storm, Ernesto made made landfall near the Carolinas border on August 31st and its remnants caused heavy rain, high winds and power outages on the 31st into the 1st, and a record wave off the coast of the mid-Atlantic on September 2nd.