Eastern Winter Storm Update

Oh man, I hate posting just before the 12Z FM update comes in. The GFS Forecast Model [JessePedia] changed its tune this morning and now is predicting that the storm will not move straight offshore, but rather turn into a Nor'easter, possibly spreading significant snow into eastern Pennsylvania, New York, and parts of New England (early Friday morning shown below).

STAY INFORMED: This is but a taste. All of the maps below, and much more, can be obtained in real-time from our AccuWeather.com Pro site.

Meanwhile, it favors ice across the southern Appalachians in the Carolinas and Virginia, possibly spoiling any significant snowfalls there:

The NMM model's morning update is holding onto the same snow forecast that it had, with 6-8 inches in northeast Georgia:

Even though the maps themselves show significant ice after the snow in the same areas as the GFS, which would probably weigh down the snow, making it look like it didn't snow much (something the model wouldn't take into account).

The NMM is just now starting to see as far out as the time of the GFS's Nor'easter and, while we can't tell yet, it does look from the map above like it is trying to expand the precipitation northward to New England. By this time tomorrow we'll know what it really has to say about the northeast this weekend.

Meteo Madness Man's (PREMIUM | PRO) latest blog says: "What makes me excited about this solution is the prospect for the first storm to bring a 4+ inch area of snow from eastern Kentucky to Maine Thursday into Friday. Now, keep in mind, this will be a quick-hitting storm with snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour at the height of the storm. It will only last about 6-8 hours in any one location. The areas from northern Arkansas through Tennessee into central Virginia, it's a mix of ice, snow and sleet." Henry says in his video that he is happy that the GFS solution is coming around to what he thought it would.

AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi's [BIO] (PRO) latest thoughts are: "There will be enough cold air damming is likely for ice in the Carolinas, and snow is a good bet for many north of I-40 from the Plains through the Ohio Valley, though amounts here will be under 3 inches in most places. This looks like a 3-6 inch snow with sleet and freezing rain mixed in from DC to Boston and a change to rain on the coast."

Overall, we seem to agree that there is the possibility of a significant winter storm in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast at the end of the week. Here's our official map as of this afternoon: