Catostrophic flooding likely in China this weekend!
UPDATE 7/6: Now they're saying over 130 are dead from the flooding, with $5b in damages, and stadiums are filling up like bathtubs!
UPDATE 7/5: The NASA GRM precipitation estimate shows a wide area of over 18 inches of rain in the last week -- literally off the charts. Some of these areas no doubt saw over two feet!
Videos of the flooding resuces and mudslides are now coming in.
ORIGINAL BLOG JULY 1, 2016:
In the last 24 hours, several cities in eastern China have received over 10 inches of rain in the last day -- and it's about to get worse.
AccuWeather's forecast is for 200-300 mm (nearly 8 to 12 inches) of rain over a wide area, including Nanjing, Wuhan and Changsha, but the worst should stay west of Shanghai. River flooding, road closures and deadly landslides are likely. I believe that the flooding will likely be catastrophic, and we'll see tragic flooding videos on the news by Monday.
The map below shows the most recent 24-hour rain accumulation in inches, to the tune of 10.90 inches, 15.43 inches and 11.89 inches at the locations encircled.
Macheng is one of those cities, and before more rain fell today, we had already given them the title of "World Weather Hotspot" for yesterday, when they received 12.95 inches.
Over the next week, both the GFS and European weather forecast computer models are predicting up to 22 inches of additional rainfall in some cities! The satellite loop (and radar) showed heavy rain continuing at the time of this writing:
AccuWeather carries the official warnings from the China Meteorological Administration on AccuWeather.com. A "Blue Warning of Rainstorm" is in effect for many cities, including Changsha.
Roughly translated to English, the text of the warning reads "Hunan Provincial Meteorological Observatory at 16:00 on July 1 issued a blue rainstorm warning: the next 24 hours, Xiangxi, Zhangjiajie, Changde, Huaihua, Yiyang, Yueyang rain will start, accompanied by thunderstorms and other severe convective weather; please strengthen flooding prevention in urban and rural areas; may lead to water logging, flash floods, and geological disasters."
On their website, the CMA said:
"Severe rainstorm to hit southern China: CMA upgraded to level three emergency response 01-07-2016. At 6:00 p.m. on June 30, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) upgraded to level three emergency response of rainstorm from level four. CMA's related inner bodies and institutions have entered level three emergency state immediately. The meteorological bureaus of Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Guizhou, Henan and Shandong should enter into emergency response state according to weather conditions and do the best to provide refined forecast and services."
The CMA issued an update on flood preparations yesterday. Because of El Nino, the flood season started early this year, and has been unrelenting and record-breaking:
"China entered the flood season in later March which was earlier than normal years. The average precipitation of the country has broken the record since 1954. Especially, southern areas of China have been hit by 20 regional severe precipitation processes. The total precipitation of 155 counties and cities all hit the historical record."
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