Bastardi`s Hurricane Forecast Background
The following are quotes from AccuWeather.com meteorologist Bernie Rayno. He is describing a new video that Joe Bastardi has done for AccuWeather.com, explaining some research that AccuWeather has put together. It's worth a watch. Click here to open the AccuWeather.com Media Player, then click on "Special Report: Why this hurricane is cause for concern." (Apologies to our Premium and Pro users, there are advertisements in that link, we are working on a Media Player for your folks).
The weather, like almost everything on this planet, works in cycles. We go through the different seasons of the year, and the seasons themselves vary from year to year. The AccuWeather.com hurricane center, lead by Expert Senior Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has been researching hurricane activity for years.
Their research shows hurricane frequency also works in cycles. The graphic above is a simplified version of their findings. The average number of storms (Hurricanes and Tropical Storms) are denoted by the purple line across the middle, while the light yellow line shows the number of storms since the late 1800s (across the Atlantic Basin).
The blue circles along the line (average number of storms) represent below-normal temperature departures (across North America) while the orange shows times when temperatures average above normal. Notice that a strong relationship exists between warmer-than-normal temperatures across North America and a higher number of storms; the same relationship exists between colder-than-normal temperatures and lower storm frequency. The current high storm frequency coincides with warmer-than-normal temperatures across North America.
