A Rare 3-Model View of Weekend Storm

Whatever you believe about this weekend's storm in the East, today we have the rare opportunity today to view the beginning hours of the storm on three Forecast Models [JessePedia] - the NAM (which just started showing it), the DGEX (our mid-range model which won't show it tomorrow) and the GFS (the long-range model which has been showing it since last weekend).

DGEX:

NMM:

GFS:

These shots are 12 hours from the genesis of the storm in the Plains. Where the storm starts, and what precipitation it is outputting then, will give a glimpse at what the storm will be like later. You can see the GFS is further north, indicating not only that the bulk of the precipitation could pass north and west of the population in the Midwest and Northeast, but also that more warm air will be entrained into the storm, causing more rain and ice, and less snow.

Not only that - this storm will likely feature both winter precipitation and rain for many locations in the Northeast and Appalachians. Snows of several inches could be spoiled by rain. Precipitation could start as ice causing unexpected travel problems. People could see rain during the storm but snow afterwards. Overall, it's a complex but classic fall storm and the truth is that we won't know for sure until it's all over.