1996 blizzard similar to 2016; Will there be a flood?
UPDATE 2/3: A "likely" area has been issued for river flooding in parts of New Jersey Maryland and Virginia, but not (as I expected) in Pennsylvania.
UPDATE 2/1:
Despite the waning snow cover, we still could see localized street or creek flooding in Virginia, Maryland and DC this week, especially if drains are clogged.
Original Blog 1/28: The Blizzard of 2016 (recently rated fourth highest ever on the NESIS scale) had many similarities to the Blizzard of 1996. In fact, if you look at the snow amount maps, they are very similar (hover over the 2016 image below to see 1996).
That has some people asking, will there be another crazy flood like the one that took place a couple weeks after the blizzard in 1996?
In a short answer, no, nothing like 1996. The 1996 flood was a perfect storm of things that cause floods. Harrisburg is a good illustration of this. Take a look at these images, which show the weather there in January 1996, versus this month.
In 1996, there was a long period of below-normal temperatures for the first half of the month, on either side of the blizzard. This meant that the snowpack (snow cover) stayed high, right up to the heat wave on Jan. 18-19 and flooding rain on Jan. 19. (There were also high dewpoints and wind during that period, creating snow-eating conditions).
The below-normal temperatures in early January 1996 also meant that the rivers because iced over; this was key to a lot of the damage, including the bridge destruction shown above.
This year, temperatures have been up and down, so there's not as much ice, and the snow cover is disappearing quickly. Additionally, almost no rain is expected.
Another similar situation to 1996, but even worse, in some areas of Pennsylvania, was the Johnstown Flood of 1936 - brought on by heavy snow pack melting along with half a foot of rain. There may be some minor flooding this month in Pennsylvania or Maryland/DC, but thankfully it shouldn't be anything to compared to either of those floods, and will be more localized, as opposed to rivers flooding.
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