The weather across California has been tranquil, and in many place, just fantastic the last couple of days. But there are signs of a major pattern change next week.
Over the last few days the models have been all over the place on the timing and placement of rain from the middle of next week through next weekend. In a change of events the European has gone more toward the GFS solution and the two are relatively close, at least for now.
A cold, upper level low develops over the east-central Pacific next week and sends into California and the Northwest a series of storms. The first comes inland on Wednesday. Rain is likely in northern California down to at least part of Central California Wednesday spreading to central areas probably later in the day and night. Much of this rain may not make it into southern California though a little is possible Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
The next storm comes inland later Thursday and Thursday laying down a frontal boundary by Friday from near the Bay Area on east and northeast. It is along that boundary a second wave of energy moves in for Friday. If this pattern holds parts of northern and central California could have a couple of days of rain, heavy at times, which may even cause local flooding problems. Snow levels will be on the high side, probably 7,000 to 7,500 feet or above. Farther south Central California will be on the right edge of these storms with some rain possible but probably not the heaviest rain. That could be save for Saturday when yet another storm moves inland, this time farther south.
Right now most of the rain Thursday and Friday looks to happen north of Southern California but then could move in on Saturday.
We need to watch this pattern. The storm track this far out is not set in stone and could be farther north or south just as much as where I have it right now. But wherever the storm track sets up this easily could be the wettest period there has been so far this season. With rainfall being below to much below normal since the beginning of October rainfall would be nice to have. Unless it comes too much too quick.
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A strong storm system will bring chilly air, rain and mountain snow into the northern Rockies towards the end of the week.
We have a couple things to watch for through the weekend and into next week across the West.
There are several things to focus on across the West over the next week including dangerous surf, heat and storms.
Dangerous heat will build across the Southwest through the middle of next week putting some records in jeopardy.
Parts of the West will bake in the heat over the next few days but cooler weather will arrive by the start of the weekend.
Models have been consistent on bringing a rigorous system from the Northwest to the Southwest this weekend.