All eyes on Cape Canaveral

Perhaps the most important weather forecast across the country this weekend will be for Cape Canaveral. SpaceX will launch the first manned mission from the United States in a decade; it’s just a question of when.

We have fingers crossed we don’t get a repeat of these images from the attempted launch on Wednesday.

This time of year in Florida, there are thunderstorms nearly every day. But, where they form changes from day to day. One of the main tools forecasters use to forecast who gets the thunderstorms is the steering flow.

Wind speed and direction at 700 mb (~10,000 feet above sea level)

What this graphic shows you is the wind flow at 10,000 feet above ground level. This wind basically pushes thunderstorms along. When the wind blows towards a coast, that is usually where the thunderstorm forms. Unfortunately, westerly steering winds usually result in thunderstorms on the east coast of Florida.

Note the wind speeds on the right. They are not very strong. That may allow the sea breeze to help blow these storms back inland. But, even if there is a thunderstorm in the area, they cannot launch. Here is the list of special criteria for launching from NASA.

Even if thunderstorms are inland; there will likely be an anvil cloud. As the winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere will blow from west to east, taking that anvil cloud east over the Kennedy Space Center. We will have to hope the latest futurecast is wrong.

Never say never, we may luck out. The thunderstorms will be scattered in nature and may not form close enough to cause issues. If we miss out today, the next launch window is tomorrow (Sunday) at 3 p.m. And, the chance for thunderstorms will be lower than today.

If you want to stream the launch live check it out on NASA-TV.

Thanks for reading. Just look up; you never know what you will see.